# Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador

> Ecuador leads at 41%, runner-up 33% across 3 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 3 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/cte-divoire-vs-ecuador
Updated: 2026-05-09T05:05:40.328Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-06-14

## Headline

- Leader: Ecuador at 41%
- Runner-up: Draw (Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador) at 33%
- Outcomes: 3 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (3 contracts)
- 24h volume: $960

## Bound contracts (3)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ecuador | 41¢ | −1pp | $942 | polymarket | /markets/cte-divoire-vs-ecuador-ecuador-polymarket-0x3150ba668d15e1c248c71bcff71c67f1adf87063db7047f27f15ebbc9a1a6a0d |
| Draw (Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador) | 33¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/cte-divoire-vs-ecuador-draw-cte-divoire-vs-ecuador-polymarket-0xa6c938b3402538af5faa626dc882bd7995db132df1c4ea669db7841df3557678 |
| Côte d'Ivoire | 28¢ | ±0 | $17 | polymarket | /markets/cte-divoire-vs-ecuador-cte-divoire-polymarket-0x8f92746709a4fc82f4d454e162046ac3590e3a5a7564540806a6c5f8a87e6738 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Ecuador | Draw (Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador) | Côte d'Ivoire |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-30 | 42 | 33 | 29 |
| 2026-05-01 | 41 | 33 | 29 |
| 2026-05-02 | 42 | 33 | — |
| 2026-05-03 | 42 | 33 | — |
| 2026-05-07 | 41 | — | — |
| 2026-05-09 | — | 33 | — |

_7 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Analysis

This probability reflects the odds that Côte d'Ivoire will outperform Ecuador in an upcoming World Cup match. The significant gap between Kalshi (11%) and Polymarket (37%) suggests traders disagree on how to weight Côte d'Ivoire's chances. Several unrelated contracts trading on Polymarket involve Côte d'Ivoire—including one on Trump administration immigration policy—which may be inflating the broader market estimate through contract confusion or cross-venue information leakage. Ecuador's strong historical World Cup participation and recent qualifying performance contrast with Côte d'Ivoire's less consistent international record. The match itself will provide the definitive resolution, though the current probability gap indicates traders are uncertain whether they're pricing similar events or have genuinely divergent assessments of relative team strength.

### Key factors

- Kalshi's Trump immigration contract (11¢) may be conflating an unrelated policy question with football performance
- Ecuador finished in World Cup qualifying ahead of most CONMEBOL competitors; Côte d'Ivoire's recent CAF qualifying record is less consistent
- Polymarket shows Ecuador winning 78¢ in a separate Ecuador vs. Curaçao matchup, suggesting confidence in Ecuadorian strength at this tournament
- Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire contracts show Côte d'Ivoire at 12¢ to win outright, implying low baseline expectations for the team
- The 26-percentage-point gap between exchanges suggests either information asymmetry, different trader sophistication, or contract design differences affecting price discovery

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/cte-divoire-vs-ecuador
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=cte-divoire-vs-ecuador

## License

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