# Will Christopher Lancia be the Republican nominee for CT-03

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 46% across 6 contracts — refreshed 53 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/ctprimary
Updated: 2026-06-26T03:20:50.247Z
Category: politics · Topic: election-2026
Status: active
Closes: 2027-11-03

## Headline

- Probability: 46% (liquidity-weighted across 6 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (6 contracts)
- 24h volume: $34

## Bound contracts (6)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Larson | 29¢ | ±0 | $29 | kalshi | /markets/will-john-larson-be-the-democratic-nominee-for-ct-kalshi-kxctprimary-01d26-jlar |
| Luke Bronin | 60¢ | +2pp | $5 | kalshi | /markets/will-luke-bronin-be-the-democratic-nominee-for-ct-kalshi-kxctprimary-01d26-lbro |
| Ruth Fortune | 3¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-ruth-fortune-be-the-democratic-nominee-for-ct-kalshi-kxctprimary-01d26-rfor |
| Daniel Miressi | 7¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-daniel-miressi-be-the-republican-nominee-for-kalshi-kxctprimary-04r26-dmir |
| Michael Goldstein | 88¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-michael-goldstein-be-the-republican-nominee-f-kalshi-kxctprimary-04r26-mgol |
| Chris Shea | 88¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-chris-shea-be-the-republican-nominee-for-ct-0-kalshi-kxctprimary-05r26-cshe |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-27 | 46 |
| 2026-06-11 | 87 |
| 2026-06-17 | 35 |
| 2026-06-25 | 60 |

_13 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Analysis

This probability reflects market expectations that Christopher Lancia will secure the Republican nomination for Connecticut's 3rd Congressional District. At 46%, the market suggests the race is competitive but leans slightly toward other candidates. The nomination outcome will depend on candidate endorsements, fundraising performance, and primary voter preferences in a district that has historically favored Democrats. The main uncertainty driver is turnout composition—whether moderate or conservative Republican voters dominate the primary. The nomination will be determined by Connecticut's primary election date, which will formally resolve this question once voting results are certified.

### Key factors

- Connecticut's 3rd District primary election date and filing deadlines determine when the nomination outcome becomes certain
- Candidate fundraising totals and donor support levels through FEC filings provide concrete indicators of campaign viability
- Endorsements from state and national Republican Party figures signal organizational backing and resources behind each candidate
- Primary turnout patterns and voter registration changes in the district affect which candidate's base mobilizes most effectively
- Lancia's prior electoral history and name recognition in the district compared to other Republican candidates

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/ctprimary
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=ctprimary
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/election-2026

## License

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