# Cuban regime falls in 2026

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 18% across 1 contract — refreshed 3 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/cuban-regime-falls
Updated: 2026-05-09T05:05:43.958Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-12-31

## Headline

- Probability: 18% (liquidity-weighted across 1 contract)
- Venue: Polymarket (1 contract)
- 24h volume: $923

## Bound contracts (1)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cuban regime falls in 2026? | 18¢ | −3pp | $923 | polymarket | /markets/cuban-regime-falls-in-2026-polymarket-0x656235664464bcadcc586acb871051dadb7c7343b7e805a5eccc02815e20d7df |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-09 | 31 |
| 2026-04-25 | 23 |
| 2026-05-02 | 22 |
| 2026-05-06 | 19 |

_23 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-06 · Cuban regime falls in 2026? −3pp 22→19¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

This probability represents the estimated chance that Cuba's current government structure fundamentally changes or is replaced by a different regime within 2026. At 18%, the market reflects skepticism about near-term regime collapse, though not impossibility. The probability is driven by Cuba's persistent economic hardship, limited foreign support, and generational tensions—factors that could trigger instability—weighed against the regime's security apparatus, lack of organized internal opposition, and historical resilience through crises. The primary uncertainty hinges on whether economic conditions deteriorate sharply enough to trigger simultaneous military defection and popular uprising, or conversely, whether economic reforms or external support stabilize the government. Key monitored developments include currency collapse severity, military loyalty indicators, and whether organized dissent emerges beyond isolated protests.

### Key factors

- Cuba's foreign exchange reserves and ability to sustain imports relative to baseline economic output
- Evidence of military unit defection, corruption within security forces, or public statements by ranking officers expressing discontent
- Magnitude and coordination of anti-government demonstrations or strikes beyond typical isolated protest activity
- Changes in external support patterns from allies such as Venezuela, Russia, or China that could affect regime sustainability
- Succession stability if Díaz-Canel's authority faces organized challenge from within the ruling Communist Party apparatus

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

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## License

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