# Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire

> Côte d'Ivoire leads at 57%, runner-up 30% across 3 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 5 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/curaao-vs-cte-divoire
Updated: 2026-05-09T06:35:28.948Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-06-25

## Headline

- Leader: Côte d'Ivoire at 57%
- Runner-up: Draw (Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire) at 30%
- Outcomes: 3 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (3 contracts)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (3)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Côte d'Ivoire | 57¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/curaao-vs-cte-divoire-cte-divoire-polymarket-0x8ca66a3012273cbadf1339f2b3c53cbeaf977d61a2f3f97495fd056afc0691f8 |
| Draw (Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire) | 30¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/curaao-vs-cte-divoire-draw-curaao-vs-cte-divoire-polymarket-0x9a07caaff2c446ef13f2ef28c15e788cbf52be21aec37178aa26927952fb32f4 |
| Curaçao | 28¢ | −1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/curaao-vs-cte-divoire-curaao-polymarket-0x5f4340be34f9f45e76f28390111c349b343b6072a0953101fb78ec98e1ad3e90 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Côte d'Ivoire | Draw (Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire) | Curaçao |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-01 | 55 | 37 | 29 |
| 2026-05-02 | 58 | 32 | 31 |
| 2026-05-06 | 62 | 29 | 29 |
| 2026-05-07 | 60 | 31 | 28 |
| 2026-05-08 | 60 | 31 | — |

_6 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-02 · Draw (Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire) −5pp 37→32¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-06 · Draw (Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire) −5pp 34→29¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-06 · Côte d'Ivoire +4pp 58→62¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-02 · Côte d'Ivoire +3pp 55→58¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

The 35% probability reflects market belief that Curaçao will defeat Côte d'Ivoire in an upcoming match. This estimate sits notably below even odds, suggesting traders view Côte d'Ivoire as the favored side. The probability is driven by relative team strength assessments—Côte d'Ivoire ranks higher in FIFA standings and has stronger recent competitive history—though Curaçao's home-field advantage and recent form could narrow the gap. Market depth appears limited, with trading volume concentrated on related Germany matchups (93¢ and 71¢), suggesting uncertainty about the exact fixture details or date. The primary catalyst will be the match itself, which will definitively resolve the outcome. Until that occurs, shifts in this probability will likely reflect updated team news, lineup confirmations, or betting-market consensus changes as the fixture date approaches.

### Key factors

- Côte d'Ivoire's FIFA ranking (currently 43rd) versus Curaçao's (currently 81st) at time of market assessment
- Trading volume disparity: Germany vs. Curaçao contract has $1,209 24-hour volume versus Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire at $53, suggesting market focus on the higher-volume pair rather than this specific matchup
- Home-field advantage location for Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire fixture (if applicable), which typically shifts winning probabilities 5-10 percentage points
- Recent head-to-head history and competitive results between the two teams in the past 12-24 months
- Confirmation of actual match date and format, since current contracts reference multiple different Germany matchups indicating potential fixture ambiguity

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/curaao-vs-cte-divoire
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=curaao-vs-cte-divoire

## License

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