# Cusco FC vs. Estudiantes de La Plata

> Closed. Last odds frozen 1 d ago — final outcome on the venue.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/cusco-fc-vs-estudiantes-de-la-plata
Updated: 2026-05-08T00:50:26.603Z
Category: general
Status: historical
Closes: 2026-05-06

## Headline

- Leader: Estudiantes de La Plata at 42%
- Runner-up: Draw (Cusco FC vs. Estudiantes de La Plata) at 31%
- Outcomes: 3 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (3 contracts)
- 24h volume: $410

## Bound contracts (3)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Estudiantes de La Plata | 42¢ | −27pp | $293 | polymarket | /markets/cusco-fc-vs-estudiantes-de-la-plata-estudiantes-de-polymarket-0x6e16dc28cac52b4cee6f16eb8231e6d3a5053cbc99487b9d92d69b524dfa68d7 |
| Draw (Cusco FC vs. Estudiantes de La Plata) | 31¢ | +60pp | $86 | polymarket | /markets/cusco-fc-vs-estudiantes-de-la-plata-draw-cusco-fc-polymarket-0xb90ef33802d81fe76d7bc70ce20e08a3db8b9836281548323ec9ffc8421c89c2 |
| Cusco FC | 28¢ | −37pp | $32 | polymarket | /markets/cusco-fc-vs-estudiantes-de-la-plata-cusco-fc-polymarket-0xbfcfaff01cee181f0bf335852e9201ff6f23906efbefcead3d34de4d1867b47e |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Estudiantes de La Plata | Draw (Cusco FC vs. Estudiantes de La Plata) | Cusco FC |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-02 | 38 | 29 | 33 |
| 2026-05-03 | 38 | — | 33 |
| 2026-05-06 | 27 | 40 | 37 |
| 2026-05-07 | 0 | 100 | 0 |

_4 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-07 · Draw (Cusco FC vs. Estudiantes de La Plata) +60pp 40→100¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-07 · Cusco FC −37pp 37→0¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-07 · Estudiantes de La Plata −27pp 27→0¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-06 · Estudiantes de La Plata −11pp 38→27¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-06 · Draw (Cusco FC vs. Estudiantes de La Plata) +11pp 29→40¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

Markets currently assess Estudiantes de La Plata as a 38% favorite over Cusco FC in an upcoming match, with Cusco FC priced at 33%, indicating a lean but not decisive preference. The pricing reflects Estudiantes' likely superior league position and recent form compared to Cusco FC, though the gap remains modest enough to suggest genuine uncertainty. Over/under markets priced at 39% (2.5 goals) suggest expectation of a relatively low-scoring contest. Resolution occurs at the match's conclusion, which determines whether Estudiantes wins, Cusco wins, or the match ends in a draw. Movement in these prices would hinge on team news, injury updates, or recent performance shifts before kickoff. The 24-hour trading volume concentration in the Estudiantes contract ($25) versus Cusco ($7) indicates stronger retail confidence in the favorite, though absolute volumes remain modest.

### Key factors

- Estudiantes de La Plata holds higher league ranking and recent form advantage, which markets have priced into a 38% win probability versus 33% for Cusco FC
- Modest 5-percentage-point gap between the two main contracts suggests meaningful uncertainty about match outcome rather than market consensus
- Over/under pricing at 39% for 2.5 goals indicates expectation of constrained scoring, which would favor defensive setup and potentially the higher-ranked team
- Trading volume strongly skewed toward Estudiantes contract ($25 vs $7 in 24h), suggesting asymmetric confidence in the favorite but also potentially thinner Cusco backing
- Actual match kickoff date and pre-match roster confirmations would be the final catalyst affecting these prices before resolution

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/cusco-fc-vs-estudiantes-de-la-plata
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=cusco-fc-vs-estudiantes-de-la-plata

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.