# Will Jonas Vingegaard win the 2026 Giro d'Italia

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 24% across 4 contracts — refreshed 1 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/cycling
Updated: 2026-05-09T04:20:38.667Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-06-14

## Headline

- Probability: 24% (liquidity-weighted across 4 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (4 contracts)
- 24h volume: $1K

## Bound contracts (4)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonas Vingegaard | 74¢ | — | $1K | kalshi | /markets/will-jonas-vingegaard-win-the-2026-giro-ditalia-jo-kalshi-kxcycling-26giro-jvin |
| Adam Yates | 5¢ | — | $19 | kalshi | /markets/will-adam-yates-win-the-2026-giro-ditalia-adam-yat-kalshi-kxcycling-26giro-ayat |
| Giulio Pellizzari | 13¢ | — | $19 | kalshi | /markets/will-giulio-pellizzari-win-the-2026-giro-ditalia-g-kalshi-kxcycling-26giro-gpel |
| Felix Gall | 4¢ | — | $10 | kalshi | /markets/will-felix-gall-win-the-2026-giro-ditalia-felix-ga-kalshi-kxcycling-26giro-fgal |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-08 | 25 |

_1 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/cycling
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=cycling

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.