# Will Tadej Pogacar win the green jersey at the 2026 Tour de France

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 26% across 6 contracts — refreshed 13 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/cyclingjersey
Updated: 2026-07-14T08:20:51.579Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-08-09

## Headline

- Probability: 26% (liquidity-weighted across 6 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (6 contracts)
- 24h volume: $543

## Bound contracts (6)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lenny Martinez | 7¢ | +2pp | $360 | kalshi | /markets/will-lenny-martinez-win-the-polka-dot-jersey-at-th-kalshi-kxcyclingjersey-26tdfrpolkadot-lmar |
| Mads Pedersen | 57¢ | +2pp | $101 | kalshi | /markets/will-mads-pedersen-win-the-green-jersey-at-the-202-kalshi-kxcyclingjersey-26tdfrgreen-mped |
| Jasper Philipsen | 5¢ | +1pp | $37 | kalshi | /markets/will-jasper-philipsen-win-the-green-jersey-at-the-kalshi-kxcyclingjersey-26tdfrgreen-jphi |
| Tadej Pogacar | 60¢ | +9pp | $34 | kalshi | /markets/will-tadej-pogacar-win-the-polka-dot-jersey-at-the-kalshi-kxcyclingjersey-26tdfrpolkadot-tpog |
| Tim Merlier | 13¢ | +2pp | $10 | kalshi | /markets/will-tim-merlier-win-the-green-jersey-at-the-2026-kalshi-kxcyclingjersey-26tdfrgreen-tmer |
| Biniam Ghirmay | 12¢ | +5pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-biniam-ghirmay-win-the-green-jersey-at-the-20-kalshi-kxcyclingjersey-26tdfrgreen-bghi |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-07-07 | 12 |
| 2026-07-14 | 31 |

_8 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-07-08 · Mads Pedersen +37pp 4→41¢ · kalshi
- 2026-07-09 · Jasper Philipsen −25pp 35→10¢ · kalshi
- 2026-07-10 · Tadej Pogacar +19pp 47→66¢ · kalshi
- 2026-07-10 · Mads Pedersen −18pp 58→40¢ · kalshi
- 2026-07-09 · Mads Pedersen +17pp 41→58¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This probability reflects the likelihood that Tadej Pogacar will win the green jersey—awarded to the Tour de France's most consistent stage finisher—at the 2026 race in July. Pogacar is primarily known as a general classification contender and mountain stage specialist rather than a sprinter, which makes winning the points jersey historically unlikely. The low 15% probability reflects that established sprinters like Jasper Philipsen (30¢) and Mads Pedersen (31¢) are heavily favored. Pogacar's chances would increase significantly if he races an aggressive stage-hunting strategy rather than protecting his overall position, or if top sprinters face mechanical issues or injury. The July 2026 Tour de France will definitively resolve this outcome, with stage results and Pogacar's tactical approach as the primary determinants.

### Key factors

- Pogacar's historical profile shows elite performance in mountain and time trial stages rather than bunch sprints, where green jersey points concentrate
- Leading sprinter Philipsen and Pedersen are priced at roughly 2x Pogacar's probability, indicating market consensus favors traditional sprint specialists
- Pogacar would need to consistently finish in top positions across diverse stage types; team tactics typically prioritize yellow jersey protection over points-stage aggression
- Only 9 days remain until the 2026 Tour de France begins, allowing limited time for injury or form changes to materially alter probabilities
- The green jersey requires averaging high placements across all 21 stages, not just occasional strong finishes

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/cyclingjersey
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=cyclingjersey

## License

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