# Will Filippo Ganna win Stage 1 in the 2026 Tour de France

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 32% across 14 contracts — refreshed 25 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/cyclingstage
Updated: 2026-07-13T01:20:51.515Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-08-09

## Headline

- Probability: 32% (liquidity-weighted across 14 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (14 contracts)
- 24h volume: $2K

## Bound contracts (14)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tadej Pogacar | 46¢ | +14pp | $1K | kalshi | /markets/will-tadej-pogacar-win-stage-10-in-the-2026-tour-d-kalshi-kxcyclingstage-26tdfrstage10-tpog |
| Alexander Aranburu Deba | 16¢ | — | $81 | kalshi | /markets/will-alexander-aranburu-deba-win-stage-10-in-the-2-kalshi-kxcyclingstage-26tdfrstage10-aara |
| Filippo Ganna | 94¢ | — | $80 | kalshi | /markets/will-filippo-ganna-win-stage-10-in-the-2026-tour-d-kalshi-kxcyclingstage-26tdfrstage10-fgan |
| Anthon Charmig | 94¢ | — | $80 | kalshi | /markets/will-anthon-charmig-win-stage-10-in-the-2026-tour-kalshi-kxcyclingstage-26tdfrstage10-acha |
| Abel Balderstone | 94¢ | — | $80 | kalshi | /markets/will-abel-balderstone-win-stage-10-in-the-2026-tou-kalshi-kxcyclingstage-26tdfrstage10-abal |
| Jonas Vingegaard | 7¢ | — | $42 | kalshi | /markets/will-jonas-vingegaard-win-stage-10-in-the-2026-tou-kalshi-kxcyclingstage-26tdfrstage10-jvin |
| Romain Gregoire | 3¢ | — | $40 | kalshi | /markets/will-romain-gregoire-win-stage-10-in-the-2026-tour-kalshi-kxcyclingstage-26tdfrstage10-rgre |
| Ben Healy | 4¢ | — | $33 | kalshi | /markets/will-ben-healy-win-stage-10-in-the-2026-tour-de-fr-kalshi-kxcyclingstage-26tdfrstage10-bhea |
| Lenny Martinez | 4¢ | — | $33 | kalshi | /markets/will-lenny-martinez-win-stage-10-in-the-2026-tour-kalshi-kxcyclingstage-26tdfrstage10-lmar |
| Alex Baudin | 3¢ | — | $31 | kalshi | /markets/will-alex-baudin-win-stage-10-in-the-2026-tour-de-kalshi-kxcyclingstage-26tdfrstage10-abau |
| Richard Carapaz | 10¢ | — | $28 | kalshi | /markets/will-richard-carapaz-win-stage-10-in-the-2026-tour-kalshi-kxcyclingstage-26tdfrstage10-rcar |
| Thomas Pidcock | 4¢ | — | $23 | kalshi | /markets/will-thomas-pidcock-win-stage-10-in-the-2026-tour-kalshi-kxcyclingstage-26tdfrstage10-tpid |
| Isaac Del Toro Romero | 11¢ | — | $17 | kalshi | /markets/will-isaac-del-toro-romero-win-stage-10-in-the-202-kalshi-kxcyclingstage-26tdfrstage10-idel |
| Remco Evenepoel | 63¢ | — | $7 | kalshi | /markets/will-remco-evenepoel-win-stage-12-in-the-2026-tour-kalshi-kxcyclingstage-26tdfrstage12-reve |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-07-09 | 32 |
| 2026-07-10 | 35 |
| 2026-07-11 | 49 |

_3 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-07-11 · Tadej Pogacar +14pp 35→49¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This represents an estimated 9% chance that Filippo Ganna wins Stage 1 of the 2026 Tour de France, based on aggregated market data. The probability reflects that Ganna faces substantial competition from sprinters and time-trial specialists, with Tadej Pogacar and Kevin Vauquelin currently favored. Stage 1 format and weather conditions closer to July 2026 will clarify whether it suits Ganna's sprint capabilities or favors other riders. Ganna's current form, any pre-tour injuries or illness, and his team's tactical positioning will be critical determinants. The stage will resolve on approximately July 4, 2026, when results are finalized. Market pricing remains relatively illiquid, with minimal 24-hour trading volume on this specific contract, suggesting limited consensus about the likelihood.

### Key factors

- Stage 1 terrain and finish type in the 2026 Tour route design — whether it's a sprint finish where Ganna's speed applies or a hilly/time-trial format favoring other specialists
- Ganna's competitive fitness and health status in early July 2026, including any injuries or illness preventing peak performance
- Team tactics and positioning — how Ganna's team deploys resources to support or protect him versus competitors' strategic choices
- Historical head-to-head performance between Ganna and named competitors (Pogacar, Evenepoel, Vauquelin, Arensman) in similar stage formats
- Market liquidity and contract volume are very low ($0 24h volume on Ganna's contract), indicating high uncertainty and limited analytical consensus

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/cyclingstage
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=cyclingstage

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.