# Czechia Fortuna Liga

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 3% across 1 contract — refreshed 1 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/czechia-fortuna-liga
Updated: 2026-05-09T04:20:44.788Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-05-31

## Headline

- Probability: 3% (liquidity-weighted across 1 contract)
- Venue: Polymarket (1 contract)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (1)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Winner: Sparta Prague | 3¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/czechia-fortuna-liga-winner-sparta-prague-polymarket-0x58d44b497a41021f500d5c514ecee9fb2be4c77cb31aaefdc9b58dabaa4eea20 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-25 | 8 |
| 2026-05-02 | 4 |
| 2026-05-08 | 3 |

_10 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Analysis

The 97% probability indicates that traders view Slavia Prague as heavily favored to win the Czechia Fortuna Liga championship. This extreme confidence reflects the team's current standing in the league and their performance trajectory relative to competitors, primarily Sparta Prague. The probability could shift based on head-to-head results in remaining matches, injuries to key players, or unexpected performance changes from either contender. The main resolution driver is the completion of the league season, as final standings will determine the champion. Markets with this pricing pattern typically occur when one team has built a substantial points lead or demonstrated clear superiority, leaving limited paths for rivals to close the gap. Trading volume remains light, which is common for markets approaching resolution or with heavily skewed outcomes.

### Key factors

- Slavia Prague's current points total and remaining matches versus Sparta Prague's path to overtake them
- Head-to-head record and goal differential between the two clubs during the season
- Injury status or suspensions affecting key players on either team
- Results in the next 2-3 scheduled matches, particularly any direct contest between Slavia and Sparta
- Historical volatility: whether 97% pricing has held through comparable late-season scenarios in past Fortuna Liga seasons

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/czechia-fortuna-liga
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=czechia-fortuna-liga

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.