# Czechia vs. Mexico

> Mexico leads at 40%, runner-up 35% across 3 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 2 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/czechia-vs-mexico
Updated: 2026-05-09T05:50:43.469Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-06-25

## Headline

- Leader: Mexico at 40%
- Runner-up: Draw (Czechia vs. Mexico) at 35%
- Outcomes: 3 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (3 contracts)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (3)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mexico | 40¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/czechia-vs-mexico-mexico-polymarket-0x1f5cd4d1a23c11229b2781303dd39fb60ec6ee369dd173cedef8a7f7a1a27298 |
| Draw (Czechia vs. Mexico) | 35¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/czechia-vs-mexico-draw-czechia-vs-mexico-polymarket-0x9de91738929365f104420a4246815a47ea2017b17e30370fa4572ceb84d898b9 |
| Czechia | 31¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/czechia-vs-mexico-czechia-polymarket-0xb7297ad99cd8e4957c64aca2fbf143efeb7045e95826cf4aa6b327ebfe1f1ec3 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Mexico | Czechia |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-01 | 37 | — |
| 2026-05-02 | 40 | — |
| 2026-05-07 | 40 | 31 |
| 2026-05-08 | 40 | — |

_6 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-02 · Mexico +3pp 37→40¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

This 35% probability reflects the market's assessment that Czechia will defeat Mexico in their upcoming matchup. The odds suggest Mexico is favored, but Czechia is given a meaningful chance based on recent form and head-to-head dynamics. Key drivers include each team's current squad strength, recent competitive results, and home-field advantage if applicable. The probability will likely shift based on team news—injuries to key players, tactical adjustments, or unexpected roster changes could significantly move the line. The match itself will provide definitive resolution, making pre-game developments the main catalyst for probability shifts before kickoff.

### Key factors

- Czechia's recent tournament performance and FIFA ranking relative to Mexico's current standing
- Mexico's historical record against European opponents and consistency in international competitions
- Availability and fitness status of key players for both teams in the weeks before the match
- Home-field advantage, venue conditions, and whether this is a qualifying match or friendly encounter
- Head-to-head record between these teams and performance trends in similar competitive contexts

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/czechia-vs-mexico
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=czechia-vs-mexico

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.