# Czechia vs. South Africa

> Czechia leads at 49%, runner-up 31% across 3 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 1 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/czechia-vs-south-africa
Updated: 2026-05-09T04:20:38.647Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-06-18

## Headline

- Leader: Czechia at 49%
- Runner-up: Draw (Czechia vs. South Africa) at 31%
- Outcomes: 3 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (3 contracts)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (3)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Czechia | 49¢ | +1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/czechia-vs-south-africa-czechia-polymarket-0x825bc4151fd9c139c4f0400c1a6f5d60cf67b2d04f12d69fd9fb5de67b13e4bc |
| Draw (Czechia vs. South Africa) | 31¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/czechia-vs-south-africa-draw-czechia-vs-south-afri-polymarket-0x0fac1fde9bf271efa6a8bcd382db88003f661f051ee7644c85ff96a6a4b2e57a |
| South Africa | 24¢ | −1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/czechia-vs-south-africa-south-africa-polymarket-0x845d6997f4b60fbcf81e8cac4510bb18988efe56e0318d77e476124c9ce80ce8 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Czechia | Draw (Czechia vs. South Africa) | South Africa |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-30 | — | 32 | 25 |
| 2026-05-01 | 47 | 34 | 24 |
| 2026-05-02 | 46 | 32 | 25 |
| 2026-05-03 | 46 | 31 | 25 |
| 2026-05-07 | 48 | 31 | 25 |
| 2026-05-08 | 49 | — | 24 |

_7 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Analysis

This 35% probability reflects market estimates that Czechia will defeat South Africa in an upcoming match. The cross-venue gap of 8 percentage points suggests differing assessments across trading communities, with Polymarket traders pricing Czechia's chances higher than Kalshi participants. The main drivers of this probability level are the relative strength and recent form of both teams, along with home-field advantages if applicable. The resolution will depend on the match outcome itself, which appears scheduled for a specific date in the near term. Volume on related Mexico vs. South Africa contracts suggests broader regional tournament context, indicating this matchup may be part of a larger competition bracket.

### Key factors

- Kalshi and Polymarket show an 8-percentage-point divergence, with Polymarket pricing Czechia 37% versus Kalshi's 29%, suggesting disagreement on team strength assessment
- Top-volume contracts on both exchanges reference Mexico vs. South Africa at 63-65¢, indicating the tournament structure and related matchups influence trader confidence in individual results
- South Africa appears in multiple high-volume contracts, suggesting market participants view this team's performance as a key variable affecting overall tournament probabilities
- The 35% aggregate probability implies roughly 2-to-1 odds favoring South Africa, reflecting baseline expectations before match-specific conditions are factored in
- Modest trading volumes on direct Czechia vs. South Africa contracts ($108-488 range) suggest meaningful uncertainty and potential for probability shifts as new information emerges

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/czechia-vs-south-africa
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=czechia-vs-south-africa

## License

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