# Daegu Mayoral Election Winner

> Choo Kyung-ho leads at 86%, runner-up 14% across 2 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 23 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/daegu-mayoral-election-winner
Updated: 2026-05-28T20:20:12.662Z
Category: politics · Topic: election-2026
Status: active
Closes: 2026-06-03

## Headline

- Leader: Choo Kyung-ho at 86%
- Runner-up: Kim Boo-kyum at 14%
- Outcomes: 2 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (2 contracts)
- 24h volume: $82K

## Bound contracts (2)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Choo Kyung-ho | 86¢ | +1pp | $23K | polymarket | /markets/daegu-mayoral-election-winner-choo-kyung-ho-polymarket-0x9f8ef513451d3cc70cccbb94bd31d6b58a1b0d31af5217e09abc1801f0e9409e |
| Kim Boo-kyum | 14¢ | ±0 | $59K | polymarket | /markets/daegu-mayoral-election-winner-kim-boo-kyum-polymarket-0xebf57e5dfe41449822b5de233c88bdc7c1026fb74ff8e6bc8fa385d8a65bff8d |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Choo Kyung-ho | Kim Boo-kyum |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-17 | 77 | 24 |
| 2026-05-21 | 78 | 23 |
| 2026-05-28 | 84 | 19 |

_12 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-21 · Kim Boo-kyum −5pp 28→23¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-22 · Kim Boo-kyum −4pp 23→19¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-26 · Choo Kyung-ho +4pp 79→83¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-21 · Choo Kyung-ho +3pp 75→78¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-22 · Choo Kyung-ho +3pp 78→81¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

This probability indicates traders estimate an 82% chance that Choo Kyung-ho wins the Daegu mayoral election. Daegu is South Korea's third-largest city, and mayoral races carry significance for local governance and sometimes reflect broader political sentiment. The current pricing reflects Choo's apparent polling lead and organizational strength relative to rival Kim Boo-kyum. Movement in this probability would likely follow changes in public polling data, endorsements from party leadership, or developments in local issues affecting voter priorities. The resolution date depends on when Daegu holds its next mayoral election; if one is scheduled soon, market prices should converge toward the actual outcome as election day approaches. Liquidity remains moderate, with combined daily volume around $14,000 across both contracts.

### Key factors

- Choo Kyung-ho's contract trades at 83 cents versus Kim Boo-kyum's 18 cents, reflecting a significant gap in perceived viability rather than near-consensus
- Trading volume and bid-ask spreads suggest limited but active participation, making prices susceptible to revision if new polling or campaign developments emerge
- The 82% probability implies roughly 1-in-5 odds the runner-up wins, a non-negligible outcome dependent on potential campaign events or shifts in voter preference
- Resolution depends entirely on the scheduled election date; unclear timing could explain why this market has not yet compressed toward extremes
- Polymarket's two-contract structure means price movements reflect direct trader belief rather than aggregate forecasting models

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/daegu-mayoral-election-winner
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=daegu-mayoral-election-winner
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/election-2026

## License

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