# Daejeon Hana Citizen FC vs. Incheon United FC - More Markets

> O/U 1.5 leads at 70%, runner-up 51% across 9 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 10 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/daejeon-hana-citizen-fc-vs-incheon-united-fc-more-markets
Updated: 2026-05-03T16:50:54.442Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-05-05

## Headline

- Leader: O/U 1.5 at 70%
- Runner-up: Both Teams to Score at 51%
- Outcomes: 9 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (9 contracts)
- 24h volume: $40

## Bound contracts (9)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| O/U 1.5 | 70¢ | +5pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/daejeon-hana-citizen-fc-vs-incheon-united-fc-more-polymarket-0x322393ed3e69e093252f1d2d448d2437540e6b1adfcbba7381082b41ea6fb00a |
| Both Teams to Score | 51¢ | −1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/daejeon-hana-citizen-fc-vs-incheon-united-fc-more-polymarket-0x110c5499e5eb45c4d9f51cc64d1dc6d65de41a7878946b7cf2bd3b2461e9a329 |
| O/U 2.5 | 45¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/daejeon-hana-citizen-fc-vs-incheon-united-fc-more-polymarket-0x14ce80ab43fc74748399bc950d32c9547836ce7f976d75f84c9f47cbf664b44a |
| O/U 3.5 | 24¢ | −1pp | $29 | polymarket | /markets/daejeon-hana-citizen-fc-vs-incheon-united-fc-more-polymarket-0x5d58f60bcef71fbea32cd17317002ed65fef80adb99080b2bf49aa94cf71ee3d |
| Daejeon Hana Citizen FC (-1.5) | 19¢ | −1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/daejeon-hana-citizen-fc-vs-incheon-united-fc-more-polymarket-0x1b4942c83673aa6671e57001745f1c23cd67edd43b92ce4cd663f334e9fdebf9 |
| Incheon United FC (-1.5) | 10¢ | +8pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/daejeon-hana-citizen-fc-vs-incheon-united-fc-more-polymarket-0x8d81ee07e25f05febdfe0dcf9590bd9ec703e6babeb8f532e9ef0d3728d6e872 |
| O/U 4.5 | 10¢ | −4pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/daejeon-hana-citizen-fc-vs-incheon-united-fc-more-polymarket-0x73881eed654b4929511b52a3f86f85b660b193defce0ea008ff79d3bdc18c695 |
| Daejeon Hana Citizen FC (-2.5) | 7¢ | −6pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/daejeon-hana-citizen-fc-vs-incheon-united-fc-more-polymarket-0x2db8baa05da287c57b226a6d3eb3c82412114a42a505d36b94afe097e7602d23 |
| Incheon United FC (-2.5) | 3¢ | +1pp | $11 | polymarket | /markets/daejeon-hana-citizen-fc-vs-incheon-united-fc-more-polymarket-0x4ce71d662883de795b58a84a72031b1561a1c077297aabf78b6b2e3baf43a7ed |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | O/U 1.5 | Both Teams to Score | O/U 2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-01 | 63 | — | 52 |
| 2026-05-02 | 68 | 52 | 45 |
| 2026-05-03 | — | 51 | 45 |

_3 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-02 · Incheon United FC (-1.5) −18pp 35→17¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-02 · Incheon United FC (-2.5) −17pp 35→18¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-02 · Daejeon Hana Citizen FC (-2.5) −14pp 34→20¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-03 · Incheon United FC (-1.5) +8pp 17→25¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-02 · O/U 2.5 −7pp 52→45¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

This market reflects a 31% probability that Daejeon Hana Citizen FC will win their matchup against Incheon United FC. The probability sits roughly mid-range, suggesting meaningful uncertainty between the two teams. Daejeon is currently priced slightly favored at 43 cents, while Incheon as an underdog sits at 27 cents. The cross-venue consistency (Kalshi at 29%, Polymarket at 31%) indicates reasonable agreement across major prediction markets. The matchup probability will be resolved when the game is played; notably, the over/under 3.5 goals market trades at only 24 cents, suggesting traders expect a lower-scoring contest. Trading volume remains modest across most contracts, with the head-to-head matchup showing the highest activity. Factors like recent team form, head-to-head history, injury status, and home/away advantage would typically influence where traders believe this probability should settle.

### Key factors

- Daejeon Hana Citizen FC trades 16 percentage points higher than Incheon United FC in win probability (43¢ vs 27¢), indicating market consensus that Daejeon enters as the favored side
- The under 3.5 goals market at 24 cents is significantly lower than typical goal-heavy markets, suggesting traders expect defensive play or limited scoring opportunities
- Trading volume concentrates on the direct head-to-head matchup ($142 24h vol) rather than spread or total markets, indicating less specialized positioning and more fundamental uncertainty
- Polymarket shows only a 2 percentage point premium over Kalshi (31% vs 29%), suggesting cross-venue consensus, though absolute volume remains modest at $70-298 per contract
- The match outcome depends on a scheduled game event with no announced postponements or extraordinary circumstances mentioned in available data

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/daejeon-hana-citizen-fc-vs-incheon-united-fc-more-markets
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=daejeon-hana-citizen-fc-vs-incheon-united-fc-more-markets

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