# Daejeon Hana Citizen FC vs. Incheon United FC

> Daejeon Hana Citizen FC leads at 43%, runner-up 29% across 3 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed just now.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/daejeon-hana-citizen-fc-vs-incheon-united-fc
Updated: 2026-05-03T14:50:28.335Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-05-05

## Headline

- Leader: Daejeon Hana Citizen FC at 43%
- Runner-up: Incheon United FC at 29%
- Outcomes: 3 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (3 contracts)
- 24h volume: $343

## Bound contracts (3)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daejeon Hana Citizen FC | 43¢ | +1pp | $90 | polymarket | /markets/daejeon-hana-citizen-fc-vs-incheon-united-fc-daeje-polymarket-0x76a37b690aecd81c24c5bf469243f7175236ac231ad8298c834611ede69b687c |
| Incheon United FC | 29¢ | −4pp | $253 | polymarket | /markets/daejeon-hana-citizen-fc-vs-incheon-united-fc-inche-polymarket-0x10cbc272a36c8985d46640eaedb6a58c32cd54479bf4fc87e8d45f07774077dd |
| Draw (Daejeon Hana Citizen FC vs. Incheon United FC) | 29¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/daejeon-hana-citizen-fc-vs-incheon-united-fc-draw-polymarket-0x747211b11adb14e16471c8c62c23291c3bae76c3c903d1a710706ff49776dabc |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Daejeon Hana Citizen FC | Incheon United FC | Draw (Daejeon Hana Citizen FC vs. Incheon United FC) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-01 | 41 | 34 | 32 |
| 2026-05-02 | 42 | 32 | 32 |
| 2026-05-03 | — | 28 | — |

_3 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-03 · Incheon United FC −4pp 32→28¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

This represents the market's assessment that Daejeon Hana Citizen FC will win their upcoming match against Incheon United FC, currently priced at 32%. The probability reflects expectations about relative team form, home-field advantage, and recent performance in the K League. The market shows modest disagreement across venues, with Polymarket pricing Daejeon slightly higher (33%) than Kalshi (29%), suggesting some uncertainty about which team enters the match with better momentum. The key driver would be any roster changes, injury reports, or recent league standings that shift perceived competitive strength between the two clubs. Resolution will occur at the scheduled match completion, which would definitively settle whether Daejeon wins, draws, or loses. Current trading volume on the direct win contract remains moderate, indicating moderate market confidence in the price estimate rather than strong conviction in either direction.

### Key factors

- K League 2025-2026 standings and recent form: Daejeon's and Incheon's current position, points, and results from last 5-10 matches
- Head-to-head history: Historical match results between these clubs, including venue-specific performance patterns
- Injury and roster status: Confirmed player absences or returns that materially affect squad depth or tactical options
- Polymarket-Kalshi price divergence of 4 percentage points: Whether the gap reflects genuine disagreement or temporary market friction
- Match date and venue confirmation: The specific scheduled date and location to assess home-field dynamics and travel factors

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/daejeon-hana-citizen-fc-vs-incheon-united-fc
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=daejeon-hana-citizen-fc-vs-incheon-united-fc

## License

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