# Will Ryan Gosling be on The Late Show before 2026

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 49% across 5 contracts — refreshed just now.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/dailyshow
Updated: 2026-05-09T04:20:39.539Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-06-01

## Headline

- Probability: 49% (liquidity-weighted across 5 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (5 contracts)
- 24h volume: $93

## Bound contracts (5)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Seth Meyers | 90¢ | +34pp | $93 | kalshi | /markets/will-seth-meyers-be-on-the-late-show-before-2026-s-kalshi-kxdailyshow-26-set |
| Ryan Gosling | 16¢ | +12pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-ryan-gosling-be-on-the-late-show-before-2026-kalshi-kxdailyshow-26-rya |
| Pedro Pascal | 92¢ | +18pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-pedro-pascal-be-on-the-late-show-before-2026-kalshi-kxdailyshow-26-ped |
| Travis Kelce | 10¢ | −3pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-travis-kelce-be-on-the-late-show-before-2026-kalshi-kxdailyshow-26-tra |
| Zendaya | 36¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-zendaya-be-on-the-late-show-before-2026-zenda-kalshi-kxdailyshow-26-zen |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-09 | 53 |
| 2026-04-26 | 51 |
| 2026-05-02 | 2 |
| 2026-05-08 | 91 |

_19 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-06 · Pedro Pascal +53pp 3→56¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-06 · Seth Meyers +46pp 3→49¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-07 · Seth Meyers +34pp 49→83¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-06 · Zendaya +33pp 4→37¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-08 · Pedro Pascal +18pp 73→91¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This contract predicts whether Ryan Gosling will appear as a guest on The Late Show with Stephen Colbert before the end of 2026. At 3%, the market assigns this outcome very low probability. The low odds reflect that Gosling makes relatively few talk-show appearances compared to actors in active press cycles, and The Late Show specifically competes with other major platforms for celebrity guests. The probability would increase if Gosling has a major film or project requiring promotion, or decrease if the contract approaches expiration without such an appearance. The contract resolves at year-end 2026, making late-year promotional schedules a key factor. Until then, industry trade announcements about Gosling's upcoming projects serve as the primary indicator of whether appearance conditions might shift.

### Key factors

- Gosling's current project pipeline and promotional schedule as of mid-2026
- Typical frequency of Gosling talk-show appearances in previous years relative to other A-list actors
- The Late Show's booking patterns and access to celebrity guests versus competing late-night programs
- Whether major film or TV releases attributed to Gosling are planned for late 2026
- Time remaining until contract expiration (approximately 7 months from present date)

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/dailyshow
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=dailyshow

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.