# Will Julia Stiles win Dancing with the Stars Season 35

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 13% across 6 contracts — refreshed 52 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/dancingwiththestars
Updated: 2026-09-20T19:20:49.155Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2027-01-07

## Headline

- Probability: 13% (liquidity-weighted across 6 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (6 contracts)
- 24h volume: $39K

## Bound contracts (6)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maura Higgins | 17¢ | ±0 | $16K | kalshi | /markets/will-maura-higgins-win-dancing-with-the-stars-seas-kalshi-kxdancingwiththestars-26dec31-mhig |
| Harry Shum Jr. | 20¢ | −1pp | $11K | kalshi | /markets/will-harry-shum-jr-win-dancing-with-the-stars-seas-kalshi-kxdancingwiththestars-26dec31-hshu |
| Amber Glenn | 7¢ | +3pp | $3K | kalshi | /markets/will-amber-glenn-win-dancing-with-the-stars-season-kalshi-kxdancingwiththestars-26dec31-agle |
| Ezra Frech | 15¢ | +9pp | $3K | kalshi | /markets/will-ezra-frech-win-dancing-with-the-stars-season-kalshi-kxdancingwiththestars-26dec31-efre |
| Jackson Olson | 6¢ | +1pp | $3K | kalshi | /markets/will-jackson-olson-win-dancing-with-the-stars-seas-kalshi-kxdancingwiththestars-26dec31-jols |
| Jenna Dewan | 14¢ | −3pp | $2K | kalshi | /markets/will-jenna-dewan-win-dancing-with-the-stars-season-kalshi-kxdancingwiththestars-26dec31-jdew |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-09-02 | 3 |
| 2026-09-06 | 13 |
| 2026-09-12 | 15 |
| 2026-09-19 | 20 |

_14 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-09-17 · Maura Higgins +19pp 3→22¢ · kalshi
- 2026-09-17 · Amber Glenn −11pp 15→4¢ · kalshi
- 2026-09-18 · Ezra Frech +9pp 6→15¢ · kalshi
- 2026-09-17 · Jackson Olson −6pp 11→5¢ · kalshi
- 2026-09-17 · Harry Shum Jr. +4pp 17→21¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This represents a prediction that Julia Stiles has an 11% chance of winning Dancing with the Stars Season 35. The probability reflects her relative positioning against other celebrity contestants, with Jenna Dewan currently favored at 25% and Harry Shum Jr. at 17%. Stiles' odds would shift based on early performance metrics—judge scores, audience voting patterns, and viewer engagement in the first few weeks of competition. The main catalyst for resolving uncertainty is the season's live performances and cumulative voting results as episodes air. Prediction markets typically adjust probabilities week-by-week based on actual dancing performance, audience sentiment, and betting activity from traders with relevant information. Stiles' previous acting career and public familiarity may influence baseline expectations, but on-show dance improvements and consistency matter significantly for probability movement.

### Key factors

- Jenna Dewan is priced at 25%, nearly 2.5x higher than Julia Stiles at 10¢, indicating markets view Dewan as a stronger favorite based on perceived dance ability or public support
- Week-to-week judge scores and viewer voting results directly correlate with probability shifts; early performance episodes typically produce significant repricing across contestant contracts
- Harry Shum Jr. at 17% suggests contestants with prior dance training or performance experience are priced higher, which may disadvantage Stiles depending on her baseline skill level
- Trading volume of $7,195 over 24 hours on Stiles' contract indicates moderate market liquidity and active reassessment as new competition information emerges
- The spread between top candidates (Dewan 25¢ to Connor Wood 3¢) shows markets are still uncertain about Season 35 outcomes, with no contestant achieving dominant probability levels

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/dancingwiththestars
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=dancingwiththestars

## License

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