# Will DoorDash Inc. report above 1040 million total orders in Q2 2026

> Above 970 million leads at 86%, runner-up 76% across 7 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 56 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/dash
Updated: 2026-08-10T15:20:49.342Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2027-03-05

## Headline

- Leader: Above 970 million at 86%
- Runner-up: Above 980 million at 76%
- Outcomes: 7 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (7 contracts)
- 24h volume: $1

## Bound contracts (7)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 970 million | 86¢ | +1pp | $1 | kalshi | /markets/will-doordash-inc-report-above-970-million-total-o-kalshi-kxdash-26novorders-970000000 |
| Above 980 million | 76¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-doordash-inc-report-above-980-million-total-o-kalshi-kxdash-26novorders-980000000 |
| Above 990 million | 58¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-doordash-inc-report-above-990-million-total-o-kalshi-kxdash-26novorders-990000000 |
| Above 1000 million | 30¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-doordash-inc-report-above-1000-million-total-kalshi-kxdash-26novorders-1000000000 |
| Above 1010 million | 18¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-doordash-inc-report-above-1010-million-total-kalshi-kxdash-26novorders-1010000000 |
| Above 1020 million | 10¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-doordash-inc-report-above-1020-million-total-kalshi-kxdash-26novorders-1020000000 |
| Above 1030 million | 4¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-doordash-inc-report-above-1030-million-total-kalshi-kxdash-26novorders-1030000000 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Above 970 million | Above 980 million | Above 990 million |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-29 | 70 | 63 | 55 |
| 2026-08-02 | 86 | 72 | 53 |
| 2026-08-03 | 85 | 71 | — |
| 2026-08-09 | 86 | 77 | 58 |
| 2026-08-10 | — | 76 | — |

_12 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-08-05 · Above 1020 million +5pp 7→12¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-06 · Above 980 million +4pp 72→76¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-06 · Above 990 million +4pp 52→56¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-06 · Above 1020 million −3pp 12→9¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This represents traders' assessment that DoorDash will report more than 1.04 billion orders in the second quarter of 2026. The 87% probability on the broader 940 million threshold suggests confidence in DoorDash's order volume reaching roughly baseline expectations, but the 9% price on the 1.04 billion contract indicates significant skepticism about reaching the higher end. Key drivers include DoorDash's historical quarterly growth rate, seasonal demand patterns in Q2, competitive pressures from other platforms, and macroeconomic conditions affecting consumer spending on delivery services. The resolution date depends on DoorDash's earnings release, typically occurring 4-6 weeks after quarter-end in July 2026, when the company reports official total orders for the period.

### Key factors

- DoorDash's Q1 2026 total order count and disclosed sequential growth trends
- Year-over-year order volume growth compared to Q2 2025 baseline
- Market share dynamics relative to competitors like Uber Eats and other delivery platforms
- Seasonal demand variations in Q2 versus full-year patterns
- Macro consumer spending indicators and discretionary spending patterns during the April-June period

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/dash
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=dash

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.