# Will Databricks' valuation hit __ by December 31 — ↑$180B

> Closed. Last odds frozen 8 h ago — final outcome on the venue.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/databricks-valuation-hit-december-31
Updated: 2026-06-19T01:20:20.801Z
Category: general · Topic: ai-tech
Status: historical

## Headline

- Leader: ↑$160B at 94%
- Runner-up: ↑$170B at 81%
- Outcomes: 12 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (12 contracts)
- 24h volume: $61

## Bound contracts (12)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ↑$160B | 94¢ | — | $55 | polymarket | /markets/will-databricks-valuation-hit-by-december-31-160b-polymarket-0x13e71b0cb776589f1d9ee3579e7b3db004ff9aa6eeded8c6ce0e4174468cb395 |
| ↑$170B | 81¢ | +2pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/will-databricks-valuation-hit-by-december-31-170b-polymarket-0xde6a54170bc8753899d56fa5baaeceae64a2f80e1bbd25f5b7928e3968b20f9a |
| ↑$180B | 74¢ | +13pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/will-databricks-valuation-hit-by-december-31-180b-polymarket-0x3288c98696dcd907522a06cf31edaf952a51ea7b57110b8bd9b5c623a4e8b7af |
| ↓$135B | 56¢ | +4pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/will-databricks-valuation-hit-by-december-31-135b-polymarket-0xc6d79b4f7f008751451dd1a50035aa0ce227a5e0573d32805aeae3720f0ee160 |
| ↓$130B | 50¢ | +6pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/will-databricks-valuation-hit-by-december-31-130b-polymarket-0x806aba290e64c23658dbf9a508a52f19fe2afd7dd2aec2cee96b27b2e2a86ab1 |
| ↑$190B | 39¢ | +1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/will-databricks-valuation-hit-by-december-31-190b-polymarket-0x0d28984b01986db6824df82fbcebbf3cba7f830923fc28fe8658598e93d10a0f |
| ↓$140B | 39¢ | −4pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/will-databricks-valuation-hit-by-december-31-140b-polymarket-0x4975dc0ce78d9cb390a4a421e0eef3c1fa64a5d771a218a0e46f7a4f21e137b8 |
| ↓$125B | 35¢ | −8pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/will-databricks-valuation-hit-by-december-31-125b-polymarket-0x1645e84eba76054f1f879938aab04034fe48a491d671f352a099ee4f60cfca2c |
| ↑$200B | 28¢ | — | $6 | polymarket | /markets/will-databricks-valuation-hit-by-december-31-200b-polymarket-0x892c525f748c60d04c0c94729f18eca9e38f52a66a38039d436048558769fcf0 |
| ↑$225B | 16¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/will-databricks-valuation-hit-by-december-31-225b-polymarket-0x7f4ebe86ccefbda94f9e2a3b8d144de5b7ff2dab64066d3fa19fb35e3cb8292f |
| ↑$300B | 10¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/will-databricks-valuation-hit-by-december-31-300b-polymarket-0x589df57dcec0bdbb8a12de62f0ceb988a80a31015a8f474e134fae17e42df07f |
| ↑$250B | 10¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/will-databricks-valuation-hit-by-december-31-250b-polymarket-0x7416088efbb11ecf399536b5890766be829715acabbc2b8631a0442f7903ad10 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | ↑$170B | ↑$180B | ↓$135B |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-15 | 75 | 63 | 34 |
| 2026-06-16 | 76 | 71 | 39 |
| 2026-06-17 | 79 | 62 | 53 |
| 2026-06-18 | 81 | 75 | 57 |

_4 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-17 · ↓$135B +14pp 39→53¢ · polymarket
- 2026-06-18 · ↑$180B +13pp 62→75¢ · polymarket
- 2026-06-17 · ↑$180B −9pp 71→62¢ · polymarket
- 2026-06-18 · ↓$125B −8pp 45→37¢ · polymarket
- 2026-06-16 · ↑$180B +8pp 63→71¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

This market reflects a 94% probability that Databricks will reach a $160 billion valuation by year-end 2026, with only a 54% probability assigned to the higher $180 billion threshold. The high confidence in the $160B outcome suggests traders believe the company's current trajectory—driven by AI infrastructure adoption and enterprise data platform demand—makes modest valuation growth likely over the remaining six months. However, the sharp drop-off at $180B indicates meaningful uncertainty about whether Databricks can achieve more aggressive appreciation. Key drivers include the company's funding activity, revenue growth rate, competitive positioning in the generative AI space, and broader venture capital market conditions. Any major funding round, significant customer wins, or shifts in AI infrastructure spending would likely move these probabilities, while market downturns or slower enterprise adoption could pressure valuations downward.

### Key factors

- Databricks' current pre-money valuation and most recent funding round terms establish the baseline for calculating probability of each threshold
- Enterprise adoption rates for Databricks' lakehouse platform directly correlate with revenue trajectory, which anchors valuation multiples
- Competitive dynamics with Snowflake, Palantir, and open-source alternatives affect market share assumptions underlying higher valuation scenarios
- Venture capital and late-stage funding appetite for AI infrastructure companies influences investor willingness to assign premium valuations
- Six-month timeline to December 31, 2026 limits dependency on multi-year product roadmap execution versus near-term fundraising or acquisition activity

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/databricks-valuation-hit-december-31
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=databricks-valuation-hit-december-31
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/ai-tech

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