# Will Databricks' valuation hit __ by June 30 — ↓$145B

> Closed. Last odds frozen 10 h ago — final outcome on the venue.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/databricks-valuation-hit-june-30
Updated: 2026-06-19T01:20:20.801Z
Category: general · Topic: ai-tech
Status: historical

## Headline

- Leader: ↑$155B at 71%
- Runner-up: ↑$165B at 68%
- Outcomes: 8 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (8 contracts)
- 24h volume: $362

## Bound contracts (8)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ↑$155B | 71¢ | +15pp | $100 | polymarket | /markets/will-databricks-valuation-hit-by-june-30-155b-polymarket-0x1f0f8749aee654d093ca3cfb6b6d25fdc661c08eb7b1efe1af3addff7449a10e |
| ↑$165B | 68¢ | +12pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/will-databricks-valuation-hit-by-june-30-165b-polymarket-0xf835e8ff20cd844e1dee8d1a4e2cf886b86a014d13552a74c334ca313b13284f |
| ↑$160B | 57¢ | +15pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/will-databricks-valuation-hit-by-june-30-160b-polymarket-0xa57da7e7a6e0707fd34b8e10654d214a7d5d5a350b5f6c2ce4d68483ec21512a |
| ↓$145B | 9¢ | — | $15 | polymarket | /markets/will-databricks-valuation-hit-by-june-30-145b-polymarket-0x7c91076df715afc2a07b30d9f3c0533532ec07a8111dca39a58bd77d17ca3124 |
| ↑$175B | 8¢ | ±0 | $22 | polymarket | /markets/will-databricks-valuation-hit-by-june-30-175b-polymarket-0xa015045172aef029aebbb68ebfa9a6d4231d50a78c39ae0605f00219a6efc9ee |
| ↓$140B | 7¢ | +1pp | $32 | polymarket | /markets/will-databricks-valuation-hit-by-june-30-140b-polymarket-0x5953dd3718e8da03762cff59f52d1f098606c751367768a82b96a35126c450a8 |
| ↓$135B | 5¢ | ±0 | $194 | polymarket | /markets/will-databricks-valuation-hit-by-june-30-135b-polymarket-0x79e9b030ce36ce05dcb2962c4151ea78a247ccca50eccc03c80aa7455653bb3d |
| ↑$200B | 3¢ | +1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/will-databricks-valuation-hit-by-june-30-200b-polymarket-0x2ffaa93ef631f224316ca89978580362acc7c49a27a77699ebb07f909bcc069e |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | ↑$155B | ↑$165B | ↑$160B |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-14 | 48 | 37 | 43 |
| 2026-06-15 | 47 | 43 | 45 |
| 2026-06-16 | 51 | 51 | 44 |
| 2026-06-17 | 66 | 57 | 49 |
| 2026-06-18 | — | 69 | 64 |

_5 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-17 · ↑$155B +15pp 51→66¢ · polymarket
- 2026-06-18 · ↑$160B +15pp 49→64¢ · polymarket
- 2026-06-18 · ↑$165B +12pp 57→69¢ · polymarket
- 2026-06-16 · ↑$165B +8pp 43→51¢ · polymarket
- 2026-06-16 · ↑$175B −7pp 17→10¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

This market measures whether Databricks will reach a $155 billion valuation by June 30, 2026—currently priced at 47%, meaning traders see it as slightly more likely than not. Databricks' valuation hinges on two primary drivers: company performance metrics and broader enterprise software funding conditions. A 47% probability reflects meaningful uncertainty, split between optimists pricing in strong continued growth and skeptics expecting valuation pressures from higher interest rates or slower AI adoption in enterprise. The June 30 deadline is imminent and fixed; the outcome depends almost entirely on whether the company pursues or completes a funding round or strategic transaction at that valuation threshold before then, rather than on operational metrics that typically take longer to influence public market expectations.

### Key factors

- Recent funding activity and announcement timelines—any new funding round would directly signal company valuation
- Comparable enterprise software company valuations and recent public market performance in that sector
- Stated growth rates, revenue multiples, and profitability trajectory relative to peer companies
- Interest rate environment and venture/late-stage capital availability affecting late-stage company valuations
- Time remaining until June 30 deadline creates discrete binary outcome; near-term announcements by company leadership would be decisive

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/databricks-valuation-hit-june-30
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=databricks-valuation-hit-june-30
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/ai-tech

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