# Will Greg Stanton be the next Chair of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) before Mar 2, 2027

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 7% across 8 contracts — refreshed 47 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/dcccchair
Updated: 2026-08-27T07:21:49.086Z
Category: general · Topic: election-2026
Status: active
Closes: 2027-03-09

## Headline

- Probability: 7% (liquidity-weighted across 8 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (8 contracts)
- 24h volume: $9K

## Bound contracts (8)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ami Bera | 7¢ | +2pp | $3K | kalshi | /markets/will-ami-bera-be-the-next-chair-of-the-democratic-kalshi-kxdcccchair-27mar02-aber |
| Jamie Raskin | 4¢ | −6pp | $2K | kalshi | /markets/will-jamie-raskin-be-the-next-chair-of-the-democra-kalshi-kxdcccchair-27mar02-jras |
| Jason Crow | 15¢ | +6pp | $2K | kalshi | /markets/will-jason-crow-be-the-next-chair-of-the-democrati-kalshi-kxdcccchair-27mar02-jcro |
| Greg Stanton | 7¢ | ±0 | $1K | kalshi | /markets/will-greg-stanton-be-the-next-chair-of-the-democra-kalshi-kxdcccchair-27mar02-gsta |
| Sharice Davids | 3¢ | +2pp | $425 | kalshi | /markets/will-sharice-davids-be-the-next-chair-of-the-democ-kalshi-kxdcccchair-27mar02-sdav |
| Lizzie Fletcher | 7¢ | ±0 | $416 | kalshi | /markets/will-lizzie-fletcher-be-the-next-chair-of-the-demo-kalshi-kxdcccchair-27mar02-lfle |
| Morgan McGarvey | 6¢ | +4pp | $350 | kalshi | /markets/will-morgan-mcgarvey-be-the-next-chair-of-the-demo-kalshi-kxdcccchair-27mar02-mmcg |
| Ted Lieu | 8¢ | ±0 | $333 | kalshi | /markets/will-ted-lieu-be-the-next-chair-of-the-democratic-kalshi-kxdcccchair-27mar02-tlie |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-08-23 | 4 |
| 2026-08-24 | 10 |
| 2026-08-25 | 10 |
| 2026-08-26 | 9 |
| 2026-08-27 | 7 |

_5 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-08-24 · Jamie Raskin +8pp 5→13¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-24 · Ted Lieu +7pp 3→10¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-27 · Jamie Raskin −6pp 13→7¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-25 · Jason Crow +6pp 10→16¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-24 · Jason Crow +5pp 5→10¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This probability reflects the chance that Greg Stanton, an Arizona congressman, becomes chair of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee by early March 2027. The DCCC chair position opens periodically and involves significant responsibility for coordinating party strategy in House races. Current pricing at 7 cents suggests relatively low confidence in Stanton for this role compared to other named candidates, who are priced identically. The main drivers of this probability would be public announcements from party leadership about the selection process, endorsements from influential Democrats, and any statements from Stanton himself about his interest. The resolution hinges on either an official announcement of the next DCCC chair or the passage of the March 2 deadline. Multiple Democratic candidates appear equally weighted in the market, indicating genuine uncertainty about the selection outcome.

### Key factors

- No incumbent chair has been announced as being replaced or stepping down as of late August 2026
- Five Democratic congressional figures are priced identically at 7 cents, suggesting equal market assessment of their candidacy
- The DCCC chair selection typically involves coordination between party leadership rather than a competitive election process
- Greg Stanton has not made public statements indicating interest in or pursuit of the DCCC chair role
- The resolution deadline is approximately six months away, providing limited time for campaign activity or formal announcements

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/dcccchair
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=dcccchair
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/election-2026

## License

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