# How many times will Donald Trump visit Trump National Golf Club Washington, D.C. in Aug 2026

> 0 leads at 27%, runner-up 24% across 4 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 4 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/dcgolfvisitcount
Updated: 2026-08-09T23:20:49.228Z
Category: general · Topic: trump
Status: active
Closes: 2026-09-01

## Headline

- Leader: 0 at 27%
- Runner-up: 2 at 24%
- Outcomes: 4 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (4 contracts)
- 24h volume: $1K

## Bound contracts (4)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 27¢ | +13pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/how-many-times-will-donald-trump-visit-trump-natio-kalshi-kxdcgolfvisitcount-26aug-0 |
| 2 | 24¢ | +3pp | $19 | kalshi | /markets/how-many-times-will-donald-trump-visit-trump-natio-kalshi-kxdcgolfvisitcount-26aug-2 |
| 4 | 17¢ | +5pp | $1K | kalshi | /markets/how-many-times-will-donald-trump-visit-trump-natio-kalshi-kxdcgolfvisitcount-26aug-4 |
| 3 | 14¢ | +4pp | $24 | kalshi | /markets/how-many-times-will-donald-trump-visit-trump-natio-kalshi-kxdcgolfvisitcount-26aug-3 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | 0 | 2 | 4 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-03 | 14 | 9 | 6 |
| 2026-08-04 | — | 15 | 11 |
| 2026-08-06 | 27 | 19 | 16 |
| 2026-08-08 | — | 24 | — |

_6 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-08-06 · 0 +13pp 14→27¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-04 · 2 +6pp 9→15¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-04 · 4 +5pp 6→11¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-06 · 4 +5pp 11→16¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-08 · 3 +4pp 10→14¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This probability reflects whether Donald Trump will visit Trump National Golf Club Washington, D.C. exactly once during August 2026. The 35% price for a single visit suggests traders view one visit as the most likely outcome, though the 29% probability assigned to zero visits indicates meaningful uncertainty about whether he visits at all. The near-term catalyst is the calendar itself—the month ends August 31st, so resolution depends on verifiable visit records before that date. Factors driving the current level include Trump's typical golf frequency during the summer months, any scheduled public appearances or events in the Washington, D.C. area that month, and the operational status of the club during August. The spread between single-visit (35%) and zero-visit (29%) outcomes suggests traders are split on his anticipated activity level, with smaller probabilities assigned to multiple visits.

### Key factors

- Trump's historical visitation pattern to this specific club during August in previous years
- Whether Trump has scheduled public events or campaigning activities in the D.C. area during August 2026
- The operational status and any scheduled closures or renovations at Trump National Golf Club Washington, D.C. during the month
- Media coverage and public records showing actual visit dates, which will provide definitive resolution data
- Comparison to his typical summer travel patterns and golf club usage across his properties

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/dcgolfvisitcount
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=dcgolfvisitcount
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/trump

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.