# Who will win the 2026 D.C. Democratic Mayoral Primary

> Closed. Last odds frozen 1 d ago — final outcome on the venue.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/dcmayord
Updated: 2026-06-19T19:20:20.888Z
Category: general · Topic: election-2026
Status: historical

## Headline

- Probability: 97% (liquidity-weighted across 1 contract)
- Venue: Kalshi (1 contract)
- 24h volume: $3K

## Bound contracts (1)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Janeese Lewis George | 97¢ | +9pp | $3K | kalshi | /markets/who-will-win-the-2026-dc-democratic-mayoral-primar-kalshi-kxdcmayord-26-jgeo |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-22 | 52 |
| 2026-06-07 | 81 |
| 2026-06-14 | 88 |
| 2026-06-18 | 98 |

_28 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-18 · Janeese Lewis George +9pp 89→98¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-15 · Janeese Lewis George −5pp 88→83¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-16 · Janeese Lewis George +3pp 83→86¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-17 · Janeese Lewis George +3pp 86→89¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This probability represents the market's assessment that Janeese Lewis George has an 80% chance of winning the D.C. Democratic mayoral primary in 2026. Lewis George currently holds the D.C. Council seat for Ward 1 and has established name recognition and an incumbent advantage in local politics. The current level reflects her perceived frontrunner status, though meaningful uncertainty remains about the final field composition, voter turnout patterns, and whether other candidates can consolidate support. The primary will likely occur in spring 2026, and key developments including candidate endorsements, fundraising reports, and polling data in the coming months will substantially shift these probabilities. The relatively tight race between Lewis George and McDuffie (18%) indicates the market views this as competitive despite the current leader's advantage.

### Key factors

- Lewis George's current D.C. Council incumbency and Ward 1 electorate base versus McDuffie's status as a councilmember from a different ward
- Official primary election date and filing deadline dates in D.C., which determine final candidate participation and timeline for campaign consolidation
- Endorsement patterns from sitting council members, labor unions, and established D.C. Democratic Party figures
- Public polling data if released, versus current reliance on market expectations and insider assessments
- Fundraising totals and spending by each candidate, which correlate with campaign infrastructure and voter outreach capacity

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/dcmayord
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=dcmayord
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/election-2026

## License

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