# Will the debt ceiling be raised?

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 58% across 4 contracts — refreshed 23 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/debt-ceiling
Updated: 2026-08-10T13:20:49.827Z
Category: economy
Status: active
Closes: 2029-03-31

## Headline

- Probability: 58% (liquidity-weighted across 4 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (4 contracts)
- 24h volume: $7

## Bound contracts (4)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $50 trillion | 33¢ | ±0 | $7 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-national-debt-hit-50-trillion-during-the-kalshi-kxdebtgrowth-28dec31-50 |
| $40 trillion | 97¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-national-debt-hit-40-trillion-during-the-kalshi-kxdebtgrowth-28dec31-40 |
| $45 trillion | 84¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-national-debt-hit-45-trillion-during-the-kalshi-kxdebtgrowth-28dec31-45 |
| Above 1.00% | 18¢ | +4pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-10-year-minus-2-year-treasury-spread-be-a-kalshi-kx10y2y-26dec31-t1.00 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-07-11 | 41 |
| 2026-07-27 | 43 |
| 2026-08-03 | 59 |
| 2026-08-10 | 59 |

_29 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-08-06 · Above 1.00% −5pp 19→14¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-08 · Above 1.00% +4pp 14→18¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

Prediction markets assign a 27% probability that legislation to increase the statutory public debt limit will become law before January 1, 2027. There is minimal expectation of immediate action, with only a 7% market-implied probability that such legislation passes before November 1, 2026. Conversely, the market suggests the national debt is highly likely to continue growing, with a 97% chance it hits $40 trillion during the Trump Administration.

### Key factors

- 27% chance of debt limit increase by Jan 2027
- 7% chance of debt limit increase by Nov 2026
- 97% probability of $40 trillion national debt
- Debt ceiling abolition seen as unlikely at 7%

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/debt-ceiling
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=debt-ceiling

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.