# Will Jon Ossoff be first this list to declare for 2028 United States presidential election before Nov 7, 2028

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 15% across 9 contracts — refreshed 22 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/declarepresfirstd
Updated: 2026-06-26T06:20:51.315Z
Category: politics · Topic: election-2026
Status: active
Closes: 2028-11-07

## Headline

- Probability: 15% (liquidity-weighted across 9 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (9 contracts)
- 24h volume: $11

## Bound contracts (9)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez | 3¢ | — | $11 | kalshi | /markets/will-alexandria-ocasio-cortez-be-first-this-list-t-kalshi-kxdeclarepresfirstd-28nov07-aoca |
| Kamala Harris | 22¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-kamala-harris-be-first-this-list-to-declare-f-kalshi-kxdeclarepresfirstd-28nov07-khar |
| Gavin Newsom | 45¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-gavin-newsom-be-first-this-list-to-declare-fo-kalshi-kxdeclarepresfirstd-28nov01-gnew |
| Graham Platner | 3¢ | +2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-graham-platner-be-first-this-list-to-declare-kalshi-kxdeclarepresfirstd-28nov01-gpla |
| Kamala Harris | 7¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-kamala-harris-be-first-this-list-to-declare-f-kalshi-kxdeclarepresfirstd-28nov01-khar |
| Mitch Landrieu | 6¢ | +5pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-mitch-landrieu-be-first-this-list-to-declare-kalshi-kxdeclarepresfirstd-28nov01-mlan |
| Rahm Emanuel | 16¢ | −2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-rahm-emanuel-be-first-this-list-to-declare-fo-kalshi-kxdeclarepresfirstd-28nov01-rema |
| Andy Beshear | 6¢ | −2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-andy-beshear-be-first-this-list-to-declare-fo-kalshi-kxdeclarepresfirstd-28nov07-abes |
| Gavin Newsom | 26¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-gavin-newsom-be-first-this-list-to-declare-fo-kalshi-kxdeclarepresfirstd-28nov07-gnew |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-27 | 3 |
| 2026-06-12 | 25 |
| 2026-06-19 | 22 |
| 2026-06-25 | 23 |

_25 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-20 · Gavin Newsom −4pp 31→27¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This probability estimates the likelihood that Jon Ossoff will be the first person from a specified list to announce a 2028 presidential bid before November 7, 2028. At 13%, the market reflects skepticism that the Georgia senator will jump into the race before most competitors. The probability depends heavily on Ossoff's political calculations and the timeline other major Democrats choose for their announcements. Early declarations typically signal front-runner status or strategic positioning, so candidates often delay announcing until mid-to-late 2027 to maintain flexibility. The key catalyst will be whether major Democratic figures announce candidacies in summer-fall 2027, which would set the competitive pace. Current trading volume suggests moderate market interest, with the probability held consistently low across venues, indicating consensus doubt that Ossoff moves first rather than waiting to assess the field.

### Key factors

- Ossoff has served as a U.S. Senator since 2021 with no prior presidential exploration or positioning relative to other potential 2028 Democratic candidates
- The 13% probability implies market participants view him as unlikely to declare before November 2027, suggesting expectations that he either skips the race or announces later than first-movers
- Historical precedent shows frontrunner candidates often announce in summer or fall 2027; earlier declarations by other candidates would immediately resolve this to zero or near-zero
- Trading volume across contracts ($365k-$15k daily) indicates moderate but not intense market conviction; higher volume spikes would likely accompany candidate movement signals
- The outcome hinges on a specific sequencing question rather than Ossoff's ultimate 2028 intentions, making this narrower and more binary than general nominee probability markets

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/declarepresfirstd
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=declarepresfirstd
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/election-2026

## License

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