# DeepSeek V4 released by...

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 16% across 6 contracts — refreshed 3 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/deepseek-v4-released
Updated: 2026-05-09T05:05:42.592Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-06-30

## Headline

- Probability: 16% (liquidity-weighted across 6 contracts)
- Venue: Polymarket (6 contracts)
- 24h volume: $17K

## Bound contracts (6)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 31 | 11¢ | +4pp | $9K | polymarket | /markets/gemini-35-released-by-may-31-polymarket-0x009cb79c526eff4af80e0e568c648a165a837c0417f4e1de3cde02bfc4a3ab42 |
| June 30 | 3¢ | −2pp | $4K | polymarket | /markets/epstein-client-list-released-by-june-30-polymarket-0xa08bf5e2acca8cf3f85209795cf278128a30869c5a8bfb97851e19fd21d0d21e |
| June 30 | 32¢ | +3pp | $3K | polymarket | /markets/gemini-35-released-by-june-30-polymarket-0x4370803e1beb74348ca8c60867808df202458112f43ab79000d477bd1074d519 |
| June 30, 2026 | 12¢ | +4pp | $1K | polymarket | /markets/grok-5-released-by-june-30-2026-polymarket-0x0c61adaf2d0c903081573c305892a84c12701330258d912252eef226faa5c50f |
| June 30 | 26¢ | −22pp | $1 | polymarket | /markets/meta-mango-model-released-by-june-30-polymarket-0xe2b3aca20d136af79f908b7c9cba9832b338e2c02083aa114444f273621b17b4 |
| June 30 | 11¢ | −8pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/veo-4-released-by-june-30-polymarket-0x3f426bad519776f3154ba11aa1050d8cc48cf756a14c0b3633cc5aad8f96fa83 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-09 | 29 |
| 2026-04-25 | 26 |
| 2026-05-02 | 29 |
| 2026-05-09 | 22 |

_29 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-06 · June 30 −31pp 51→20¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-06 · June 30 +24pp 15→39¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-06 · June 30 −22pp 48→26¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-06 · May 31 −15pp 23→8¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-07 · June 30, 2026 −8pp 18→10¢ · polymarket

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/deepseek-v4-released
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=deepseek-v4-released

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.