# Will Germany GDP growth rate QoQ flash for Q1 2026 be above -0.6%

> Above -0.5% leads at 95%, runner-up 85% across 13 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 54 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/degdpqoqf
Updated: 2026-06-26T12:20:49.535Z
Category: economy · Topic: recession
Status: active
Closes: 2026-07-30

## Headline

- Leader: Above -0.5% at 95%
- Runner-up: Above -0.4% at 85%
- Outcomes: 13 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (13 contracts)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (13)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above -0.5% | 95¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-germany-gdp-growth-rate-qoq-flash-for-q2-2026-kalshi-kxdegdpqoqf-26jul30-t-0.5 |
| Above -0.4% | 85¢ | −2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-germany-gdp-growth-rate-qoq-flash-for-q2-2026-kalshi-kxdegdpqoqf-26jul30-t-0.4 |
| Above -0.3% | 75¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-germany-gdp-growth-rate-qoq-flash-for-q2-2026-kalshi-kxdegdpqoqf-26jul30-t-0.3 |
| Above -0.2% | 63¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-germany-gdp-growth-rate-qoq-flash-for-q2-2026-kalshi-kxdegdpqoqf-26jul30-t-0.2 |
| Above -0.1% | 53¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-germany-gdp-growth-rate-qoq-flash-for-q2-2026-kalshi-kxdegdpqoqf-26jul30-t-0.1 |
| Above 0.0% | 43¢ | +2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-germany-gdp-growth-rate-qoq-flash-for-q2-2026-kalshi-kxdegdpqoqf-26jul30-t0.0 |
| Above 0.1% | 43¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-germany-gdp-growth-rate-qoq-flash-for-q2-2026-kalshi-kxdegdpqoqf-26jul30-t0.1 |
| Above 0.2% | 28¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-germany-gdp-growth-rate-qoq-flash-for-q2-2026-kalshi-kxdegdpqoqf-26jul30-t0.2 |
| Above 0.3% | 20¢ | +3pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-germany-gdp-growth-rate-qoq-flash-for-q2-2026-kalshi-kxdegdpqoqf-26jul30-t0.3 |
| Above 0.6% | 12¢ | +6pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-germany-gdp-growth-rate-qoq-flash-for-q2-2026-kalshi-kxdegdpqoqf-26jul30-t0.6 |
| Above 0.8% | 11¢ | +10pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-germany-gdp-growth-rate-qoq-flash-for-q2-2026-kalshi-kxdegdpqoqf-26jul30-t0.8 |
| Above 0.4% | 9¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-germany-gdp-growth-rate-qoq-flash-for-q2-2026-kalshi-kxdegdpqoqf-26jul30-t0.4 |
| Above 0.5% | 6¢ | +4pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-germany-gdp-growth-rate-qoq-flash-for-q2-2026-kalshi-kxdegdpqoqf-26jul30-t0.5 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Above -0.4% | Above -0.3% | Above -0.2% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-27 | — | 74 | 63 |
| 2026-05-28 | 87 | — | — |
| 2026-05-31 | 87 | 75 | 63 |
| 2026-06-03 | 86 | — | — |
| 2026-06-06 | 87 | — | — |
| 2026-06-13 | — | — | 64 |
| 2026-06-24 | 85 | 76 | 64 |
| 2026-06-25 | — | 76 | 64 |
| 2026-06-26 | — | 76 | 64 |

_9 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-19 · Above 0.3% +3pp 17→20¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This probability estimates whether Germany's economy will contract by less than 0.6% on a quarter-over-quarter basis in Q1 2026. The 28% probability reflects skepticism that Germany will avoid sharper contraction, particularly given recent eurozone weakness. The main factors shaping this assessment are Germany's industrial activity trends, consumer spending patterns, and export demand in early 2026. The German statistical office (Destatis) will release the preliminary Q1 2026 GDP flash estimate on May 15, 2026, which will definitively resolve this question. Until then, market expectations hinge on incoming PMI data, retail sales reports, and signals about manufacturing orders that typically precede the official release. Traders are pricing in roughly a 72% probability of contraction exceeding 0.6%, suggesting consensus expectations lean toward meaningful economic weakness in the quarter.

### Key factors

- Germany's manufacturing PMI and industrial production data for January-March 2026 will directly influence whether contraction stays within or exceeds the -0.6% threshold
- Consumer spending and retail sales momentum in Q1 2026 will indicate domestic demand resilience, with weakness increasing probability of steeper contraction
- Export demand and orders from trading partners, particularly auto sector shipments, will affect overall output growth or contraction
- The eurozone's broader economic trajectory, indicated by parallel GDP estimates for France and the euro area, provides context for Germany-specific outcomes
- Destatis preliminary flash estimate release on May 15, 2026 will provide definitive resolution, making all current pricing contingent on that data point

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/degdpqoqf
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=degdpqoqf
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/recession

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