# Will Germany GDP growth rate YoY flash for Q1 2026 be above -0.1%

> Closed. Last odds frozen 1 d ago — final outcome on the venue.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/degdpyoyf
Updated: 2026-07-31T07:20:51.464Z
Category: economy · Topic: recession
Status: historical
Closes: 2026-07-30

## Headline

- Leader: Above 0.0% at 88%
- Runner-up: Above 0.4% at 63%
- Outcomes: 9 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (9 contracts)
- 24h volume: $244

## Bound contracts (9)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 0.0% | 88¢ | −2pp | $25 | kalshi | /markets/will-germany-gdp-growth-rate-yoy-flash-for-q2-2026-kalshi-kxdegdpyoyf-26jul30-t0.0 |
| Above 0.4% | 63¢ | +39pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-germany-gdp-growth-rate-yoy-flash-for-q2-2026-kalshi-kxdegdpyoyf-26jul30-t0.4 |
| Above -0.2% | 60¢ | +14pp | $200 | kalshi | /markets/will-germany-gdp-growth-rate-yoy-flash-for-q2-2026-kalshi-kxdegdpyoyf-26jul30-t-0.2 |
| Above -0.4% | 60¢ | −1pp | $19 | kalshi | /markets/will-germany-gdp-growth-rate-yoy-flash-for-q2-2026-kalshi-kxdegdpyoyf-26jul30-t-0.4 |
| Above 0.2% | 60¢ | −2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-germany-gdp-growth-rate-yoy-flash-for-q2-2026-kalshi-kxdegdpyoyf-26jul30-t0.2 |
| Above 0.6% | 18¢ | +2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-germany-gdp-growth-rate-yoy-flash-for-q2-2026-kalshi-kxdegdpyoyf-26jul30-t0.6 |
| Above 1.2% | 7¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-germany-gdp-growth-rate-yoy-flash-for-q2-2026-kalshi-kxdegdpyoyf-26jul30-t1.2 |
| Above 0.8% | 6¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-germany-gdp-growth-rate-yoy-flash-for-q2-2026-kalshi-kxdegdpyoyf-26jul30-t0.8 |
| Above 1.0% | 3¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-germany-gdp-growth-rate-yoy-flash-for-q2-2026-kalshi-kxdegdpyoyf-26jul30-t1.0 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Above 0.0% | Above 0.4% | Above -0.2% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-03 | 94 | — | — |
| 2026-07-05 | — | 49 | — |
| 2026-07-09 | 90 | 46 | — |
| 2026-07-15 | 88 | 5 | — |
| 2026-07-16 | — | 15 | 48 |
| 2026-07-19 | — | 25 | 48 |
| 2026-07-26 | — | 36 | 48 |
| 2026-07-30 | — | 59 | 58 |

_24 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-07-26 · Above -0.2% +47pp 1→48¢ · kalshi
- 2026-07-30 · Above 0.4% +39pp 20→59¢ · kalshi
- 2026-07-27 · Above -0.2% −25pp 48→23¢ · kalshi
- 2026-07-28 · Above -0.2% +25pp 23→48¢ · kalshi
- 2026-07-30 · Above -0.2% +14pp 44→58¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

Markets currently assess a 94% probability that Germany's year-over-year GDP growth rate for Q2 2026 will exceed -0.2%, reflecting expectations of either modest growth or a contraction smaller than -0.2%. The contract pricing suggests traders believe Germany's economy will avoid severe contraction in the second quarter. The current probability reflects recent economic data, ECB policy signals, and forecasts from institutional economists. Q2 2026 GDP figures will be released in mid-August 2026, providing the definitive outcome. Downside risks include persistent weakness in manufacturing, energy costs, or geopolitical shocks; upside factors include stronger consumer demand or industrial recovery. The spread across related contracts (with outcomes at 0.0%, 0.2%, and 0.4% showing markedly lower probabilities) indicates uncertainty about whether growth will be positive versus slightly negative.

### Key factors

- Official Destatis Q2 2026 flash estimate, scheduled for August 2026, will determine the final outcome
- Current contract pricing shows 94% confidence in growth above -0.2% but only 48% confidence in growth above 0.4%, indicating a narrow expected range
- Recent German economic surveys and PMI data heading into Q2 2026 will influence probability adjustments before the release
- ECB monetary policy stance and eurozone-wide demand conditions directly affect Germany's export-dependent manufacturing sector
- External shocks such as energy price spikes or trade disruptions between the forecast date and August release could shift probabilities materially

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/degdpyoyf
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=degdpyoyf
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/recession

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