# Democratic VP Nominee 2028

> Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez leads at 10%, runner-up 10% across 12 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 5 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/democratic-vp-nominee-2028
Updated: 2026-05-09T07:20:27.489Z
Category: politics · Topic: election-2026
Status: active
Closes: 2028-08-10

## Headline

- Leader: Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez at 10%
- Runner-up: Gretchen Whitmer at 10%
- Outcomes: 12 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (12 contracts)
- 24h volume: $16

## Bound contracts (12)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez | 10¢ | −5pp | $10 | polymarket | /markets/democratic-vp-nominee-2028-alexandria-ocasio-corte-polymarket-0xebef001d4d505f3b07d7d95eaddc07bbd73fbad53f3419041bf99887b75c915a |
| Gretchen Whitmer | 10¢ | −7pp | $6 | polymarket | /markets/democratic-vp-nominee-2028-gretchen-whitmer-polymarket-0xa8ff8840eaeb505591531380d76bd63506b8eb44080321d6bd02a23a58cdf277 |
| Gavin Newsom | 7¢ | +1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/democratic-vp-nominee-2028-gavin-newsom-polymarket-0x3d08aa0566b54cebc5b5a7a7e04484e0cebb14f17bee93c4797334ab3f8edcf2 |
| Pete Buttigieg | 6¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/democratic-vp-nominee-2028-pete-buttigieg-polymarket-0x7d8d0a4d85c3de82cbca24cbdad67003bf1155a7df0669926a3ff1357c43ba4e |
| Raphael Warnock | 5¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/democratic-vp-nominee-2028-raphael-warnock-polymarket-0xf888771a18a73763ea307b9ee70ffdee7114b41013e233f2f1f0c16f7167c722 |
| Phil Murphy | 5¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/democratic-vp-nominee-2028-phil-murphy-polymarket-0x75aa5e68e799c47d07b00a4605ca438e1f6112d8787773b2b0eb92b89dd8ba20 |
| Kamala Harris | 4¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/democratic-vp-nominee-2028-kamala-harris-polymarket-0x207d8be2f11fc1946765a3ed48d54cc02d64e74afe2ba4a3d7169e6c3816b2a0 |
| Andy Beshear | 4¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/democratic-vp-nominee-2028-andy-beshear-polymarket-0x598cdf95d67bad889404c29aeba8f43e2299a637067c5e324d69e54a92e88dd1 |
| Josh Shapiro | 4¢ | +1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/democratic-vp-nominee-2028-josh-shapiro-polymarket-0x319590e658173604cb05be56afe4dd4e8001afb4be138461c783c2d3f6fb70f6 |
| Wes Moore | 3¢ | −2pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/democratic-vp-nominee-2028-wes-moore-polymarket-0xaa6a2198627a5de212fdf74fd90eda0f62cfe6132dbce5cafbb7ab6550ffd399 |
| Mark Kelly | 3¢ | +1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/democratic-vp-nominee-2028-mark-kelly-polymarket-0x1825c6e9b9168762a4ef12ba40ee7b12fb77c5885c646a8b16fad8fbefe21b18 |
| Gina Raimondo | 3¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/democratic-vp-nominee-2028-gina-raimondo-polymarket-0x0368d512a402463d9938b17efc916c5e0f6d8e6e3e8c5e34b66118c9168caa36 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez | Gretchen Whitmer | Gavin Newsom |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-07 | 16 | 18 | 7 |
| 2026-05-08 | 11 | 11 | 6 |
| 2026-05-09 | — | — | 7 |

_3 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-08 · Wes Moore −13pp 18→5¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-08 · Gretchen Whitmer −7pp 18→11¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-08 · Pete Buttigieg −7pp 13→6¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-08 · Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez −5pp 16→11¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-08 · Raphael Warnock −3pp 8→5¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

This 30% probability represents market participants' assessment that a particular Democratic candidate will be nominated as Vice President in 2028. The current leader appears to be a relatively obscure figure, with Ro Khanna showing the highest trading volume at 39 cents. The probability reflects early-stage uncertainty: the 2028 Democratic presidential nominee hasn't been selected, and VP choices typically occur after that decision. Key drivers include the eventual nominee's strategic calculus about geographic balance, ideological positioning, and demographic appeal. The probabilities will likely shift substantially once the Democratic primary concludes and the presidential nominee announces their running mate selection, expected in summer 2028. Currently, low trading volumes suggest limited market conviction across most candidates.

### Key factors

- The 2028 Democratic presidential nominee has not yet been determined; VP selection typically occurs only after the nominee is decided, making current VP odds highly speculative.
- Ro Khanna (39¢) leads despite representing roughly 4% implied probability, indicating thin liquidity and potentially unrepresentative pricing in a 19-way market.
- Total contract volume is modest ($220 in the top contracts over 24 hours), suggesting limited participation and potential for significant repricing with increased activity.
- Historical VP selections depend heavily on the eventual presidential nominee's identity and strategic priorities, making current individual candidate odds disconnected from actual decision-making.
- The resolution date is approximately 28 months away, providing ample time for political developments, candidate viability changes, and market reassessment.

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/democratic-vp-nominee-2028
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=democratic-vp-nominee-2028
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/election-2026

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