# Denmark Superliga

> Winner: AGF leads at 67%, runner-up 49% across 2 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 3 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/denmark-superliga
Updated: 2026-05-09T05:50:43.439Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-05-31

## Headline

- Leader: Winner: AGF at 67%
- Runner-up: Winner: Midtjylland at 49%
- Outcomes: 2 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (2 contracts)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (2)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Winner: AGF | 67¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/denmark-superliga-winner-agf-polymarket-0x29852d49fa83e9d8ea17da03c581cba9def27bace4b9e3858bd8852dba09cb19 |
| Winner: Midtjylland | 49¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/denmark-superliga-winner-midtjylland-polymarket-0xeffcc3161e0244d9789f985111db5d9fa9660f9ff1c783a8a552811a1a668578 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Winner: AGF | Winner: Midtjylland |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-25 | 44 | 49 |
| 2026-05-02 | 22 | 69 |
| 2026-05-09 | 68 | 49 |

_13 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-06 · Winner: AGF +25pp 36→61¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-06 · Winner: Midtjylland −19pp 64→45¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-02 · Winner: AGF −16pp 38→22¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-03 · Winner: AGF +14pp 22→36¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-07 · Winner: AGF +6pp 61→67¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

This probability indicates that prediction market participants believe Midtjylland has a 64% chance of winning the 2026 Denmark Superliga season, with AGF at 36%. The market pricing reflects Midtjylland's current standing and recent performance relative to competitors. Key drivers of this probability include each team's league position, goal differential, recent form, and remaining fixture difficulty. The probability will adjust as the season progresses and teams play additional matches; injuries to key players, managerial changes, or significant wins/losses against top rivals would materially shift expectations. The main catalyst remains the accumulation of match results through the remainder of the season, with critical fixtures against other title contenders likely to move the market most significantly. Trading volume remains low ($10 in 24 hours), suggesting limited market liquidity and wider potential bid-ask spreads.

### Key factors

- Midtjylland's current league position and points total relative to AGF and other contenders
- Goal differential and head-to-head record between Midtjylland and AGF
- Remaining strength of schedule and fixture congestion for both teams through season end
- Recent form over last 5-10 matches, including wins, draws, and losses
- Key player availability, injuries, or suspensions that could affect either team's performance

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/denmark-superliga
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=denmark-superliga

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.