# Denmark vs. Ukraine - Exact Score

> Exact Score: 1-0 leads at 13%, runner-up 13% across 13 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 1 d ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/denmark-vs-ukraine-exact-score
Updated: 2026-06-06T23:20:07.419Z
Category: geopolitics · Topic: ukraine
Status: active
Closes: 2026-06-07

## Headline

- Leader: Exact Score: 1-0 at 13%
- Runner-up: Exact Score: 2-0 at 13%
- Outcomes: 13 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (13 contracts)
- 24h volume: $46

## Bound contracts (13)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Exact Score: 1-0 | 13¢ | +6pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/denmark-vs-ukraine-exact-score-exact-score-1-0-polymarket-0x37f01e729a816b895ea052c9c84f5873206ddad8ff9727596d07eb7a64ab8567 |
| Exact Score: 2-0 | 13¢ | −11pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/denmark-vs-ukraine-exact-score-exact-score-2-0-polymarket-0x6e59ebe91547de883f153f151bcee9e7c4ab1f4a3088b971ca72188191eede59 |
| Exact Score: 1-1 | 11¢ | +18pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/denmark-vs-ukraine-exact-score-exact-score-1-1-polymarket-0x6e264f91f7e6c19aad94ba9af65ea146ae4fa1bb17d3fa56f6eb82e04bfcd439 |
| Exact Score: 2-1 | 10¢ | +29pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/denmark-vs-ukraine-exact-score-exact-score-2-1-polymarket-0x7a8f3572e698f0003f29f0b37093f5ef6f1ba42f445de7515afa81015b811207 |
| Exact Score: 0-1 | 7¢ | −10pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/denmark-vs-ukraine-exact-score-exact-score-0-1-polymarket-0x96ed1670d4b7ed10026e5df654b856492e2a41a50fc964df71269361a9516e08 |
| Exact Score: 0-0 | 7¢ | +7pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/denmark-vs-ukraine-exact-score-exact-score-0-0-polymarket-0xb274f441efe80052f9baf8c2fb58880e91a9d0a9ab9b9a6a2d71dc0ae532245d |
| Exact Score: Any Other Score | 7¢ | −5pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/denmark-vs-ukraine-exact-score-exact-score-any-oth-polymarket-0xf93ff3dee369e99f2256bc04fa7cf86d9e87085b4e7b3657fa849b2d6fdd85de |
| Exact Score: 3-0 | 5¢ | +23pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/denmark-vs-ukraine-exact-score-exact-score-3-0-polymarket-0xc5baa8d1483c553b6ac5f541ae4d01352dbcc9987a8b281c25d83ced8e4d91cb |
| Exact Score: 1-2 | 4¢ | −8pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/denmark-vs-ukraine-exact-score-exact-score-1-2-polymarket-0x6ee96078c4e37ab9e41717ebcd6ff3427cacba66bb806d6be3d278cc59a74949 |
| Exact Score: 2-2 | 4¢ | −11pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/denmark-vs-ukraine-exact-score-exact-score-2-2-polymarket-0x76d9bfeab6de161837c2c50161aab95a6be42387f65045e68de7d62cc7f1ae7d |
| Exact Score: 3-1 | 4¢ | +17pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/denmark-vs-ukraine-exact-score-exact-score-3-1-polymarket-0xc4e8568bb4c5f8c28569487fdc9d2a65dc1c0b111128a334f057ad140922cdf5 |
| Exact Score: 0-2 | 3¢ | −9pp | $46 | polymarket | /markets/denmark-vs-ukraine-exact-score-exact-score-0-2-polymarket-0x72aaf3ed9a73c1292307617e79d59d8095304aeda15094c0f8526b413b43d5e6 |
| Exact Score: 3-2 | 3¢ | −19pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/denmark-vs-ukraine-exact-score-exact-score-3-2-polymarket-0xba592fb57984f82fe3ac83b3738d0a5b81782b58cb36f89ad81a84c6545fc146 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Exact Score: 1-0 | Exact Score: 2-0 | Exact Score: 1-1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-05 | 13 | 12 | 12 |
| 2026-06-06 | 14 | 12 | 12 |
| 2026-06-07 | 11 | 12 | 7 |
| 2026-06-08 | 17 | 1 | 25 |

_4 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-07 · Exact Score: 2-1 +34pp 11→45¢ · polymarket
- 2026-06-08 · Exact Score: 2-1 +29pp 45→74¢ · polymarket
- 2026-06-07 · Exact Score: Any Other Score +29pp 7→36¢ · polymarket
- 2026-06-08 · Exact Score: 3-0 +23pp 16→39¢ · polymarket
- 2026-06-08 · Exact Score: 3-2 −19pp 19→0¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

This market is pricing a 13% probability that Denmark defeats Ukraine by exactly 1-0. The contracts reflect significant uncertainty about the match outcome, with the three most likely exact scores (1-0, 1-1, and 2-0) each trading within a narrow 12-13 cent range, indicating no strong consensus on a specific result. The probability distribution suggests that traders expect a low-scoring match, given that scorelines with 3+ goals combined represent a small portion of total market value. The match outcome depends primarily on each team's current form, squad availability, and the tactical approach each side adopts. Once the match concludes, the contract will resolve definitively based on the final score.

### Key factors

- The top three exact scorelines (1-0, 1-1, 2-0) are clustered within 1 percentage point, indicating broad uncertainty rather than strong conviction around any single outcome.
- Recent head-to-head records, current FIFA rankings, and injury status of key players would materially affect the likelihood of a 1-0 Denmark victory versus other low-scoring outcomes.
- Zero 24-hour trading volume across all contracts suggests limited recent market activity and prices that may reflect stale information rather than fresh trader assessment.
- Low-scoring exact results (1-0, 1-1, 0-1) comprise roughly 38% of total contract value, implying traders expect a defensive or tactically cautious match.
- The match date and venue, along with whether either team is playing for a specific tournament objective or has rotation concerns, would be critical variables driving final probabilities.

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/denmark-vs-ukraine-exact-score
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=denmark-vs-ukraine-exact-score
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/ukraine

## License

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