# Denver Summit FC vs. San Diego Wave FC - More Markets

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 25% across 3 contracts — refreshed 51 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/denver-summit-fc-vs-san-diego-wave-fc-more-markets
Updated: 2026-06-26T04:20:51.162Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2028-10-31

## Headline

- Probability: 25% (liquidity-weighted across 3 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (3 contracts)
- 24h volume: $134

## Bound contracts (3)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| San Diego | 41¢ | −1pp | $134 | kalshi | /markets/pro-baseball-playoff-qualifiers-san-diego-kalshi-kxmlbplayoffs-26-sd |
| 90+ wins | 8¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-san-diego-win-at-least-90-games-this-season-9-kalshi-kxmlbwins-sd-26-t90 |
| 85+ wins | 25¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-san-diego-win-at-least-85-games-this-season-8-kalshi-kxmlbwins-sd-26-t85 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-27 | 49 |
| 2026-06-12 | 23 |
| 2026-06-19 | 20 |
| 2026-06-26 | 26 |

_31 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-20 · San Diego −11pp 30→19¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-25 · San Diego +11pp 31→42¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-24 · San Diego +9pp 22→31¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-19 · San Diego +4pp 26→30¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-24 · 85+ wins +4pp 24→28¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

The 18% probability reflects the market's assessment that Denver Summit FC will defeat San Diego Wave FC in an upcoming match. The prediction is based on three related contracts tracking San Diego's win totals and playoff prospects for the 2026 season. The current level suggests market participants view Denver as the favored side, though the low trading volume on longer-term contracts indicates limited conviction. Resolution depends on whether San Diego can maintain competitive form through the season—their performance in remaining games determines both playoff qualification odds and season win totals. The actual match outcome will be known on the scheduled game date, while season-long projections will clarify as more games conclude and San Diego's final record becomes apparent.

### Key factors

- San Diego's current win total and remaining schedule directly influence both their playoff probability and season win projections
- The 85-win threshold (22¢) versus 90-win threshold (7¢) shows sharp probability drops, indicating where market participants see meaningful performance breakpoints
- Playoff qualification (17¢) is priced higher than 90-win achievement, suggesting the market views division/conference dynamics as relevant to playoff odds
- Trading volume remains at or near zero on multi-outcome contracts, indicating low market participation and potentially higher uncertainty bands
- Denver's roster strength, recent form, and head-to-head history against San Diego would factor into the match-specific 18% probability versus broader season projections

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/denver-summit-fc-vs-san-diego-wave-fc-more-markets
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=denver-summit-fc-vs-san-diego-wave-fc-more-markets

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