# Will the number of ICE removals be above 400000 in FY2026

> Above 200,000 leads at 95%, runner-up 95% across 5 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 22 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/deportations
Updated: 2026-06-26T06:20:50.295Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2027-01-01

## Headline

- Leader: Above 200,000 at 95%
- Runner-up: Above 300,000 at 95%
- Outcomes: 5 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (5 contracts)
- 24h volume: $252

## Bound contracts (5)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 200,000 | 95¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-number-of-ice-removals-be-above-200000-in-kalshi-kxdeportations-27jan01-t200000 |
| Above 300,000 | 95¢ | +2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-number-of-ice-removals-be-above-300000-in-kalshi-kxdeportations-27jan01-t300000 |
| Above 400,000 | 88¢ | −4pp | $17 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-number-of-ice-removals-be-above-400000-in-kalshi-kxdeportations-27jan01-t400000 |
| Above 500,000 | 33¢ | −1pp | $130 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-number-of-ice-removals-be-above-500000-in-kalshi-kxdeportations-27jan01-t500000 |
| Above 600,000 | 24¢ | +1pp | $105 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-number-of-ice-removals-be-above-600000-in-kalshi-kxdeportations-27jan01-t600000 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Above 200,000 | Above 300,000 | Above 400,000 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-31 | — | 90 | 81 |
| 2026-06-03 | — | — | 82 |
| 2026-06-08 | 93 | 92 | 88 |
| 2026-06-09 | — | — | 92 |
| 2026-06-12 | — | — | 88 |
| 2026-06-21 | 94 | 93 | — |
| 2026-06-24 | 95 | 95 | — |
| 2026-06-25 | 95 | — | — |

_10 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-21 · Above 600,000 +8pp 15→23¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-21 · Above 500,000 +4pp 28→32¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This probability reflects whether U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement will conduct more than 400,000 removals during the 2026 fiscal year (October 2025 through September 2026). At 51%, the market is pricing this as a near coin-flip outcome. The current level reflects uncertainty around enforcement policy direction and resource allocation under the current administration, as removals depend on detention capacity, personnel funding, and prosecutorial priorities. The key catalyst will be the actual removal figures released by ICE in quarterly reports throughout FY2026, with the mid-year data point (around March 2026) providing early signals of whether the pace would reach the 400,000 threshold if maintained. Historical context matters: removals have ranged significantly by administration, making this threshold neither historically extreme nor trivially easy to achieve.

### Key factors

- ICE detention bed capacity and occupancy rates directly constrain removal operations and will determine physical processing capability
- Congressional appropriations for ICE operations, personnel, and immigration enforcement priorities will influence resource availability for removals
- Quarter-by-quarter removal data releases (October 2025, January 2026, April 2026, July 2026) will provide concrete evidence of current pace versus the 400,000 annual target
- Policy changes regarding prosecutorial discretion and enforcement priorities could materially shift removal operations above or below historical trends
- State-level cooperation agreements and cooperation from local jurisdictions affect ICE's ability to access detained individuals for removal proceedings

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/deportations
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=deportations

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.