# Deportivo La Guaira FC vs. Club Bolívar

> Closed. Last odds frozen 1 d ago — final outcome on the venue.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/deportivo-la-guaira-fc-vs-club-bolvar
Updated: 2026-05-08T00:50:26.603Z
Category: general
Status: historical
Closes: 2026-05-06

## Headline

- Leader: Club Bolívar at 36%
- Runner-up: Deportivo La Guaira FC at 35%
- Outcomes: 3 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (3 contracts)
- 24h volume: $314

## Bound contracts (3)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Club Bolívar | 36¢ | −26pp | $109 | polymarket | /markets/deportivo-la-guaira-fc-vs-club-bolvar-club-bolvar-polymarket-0x866f7d6fcb8bbf68c20cb33f4afa51ee0efc76e5959d7414bd6e293e085be26f |
| Deportivo La Guaira FC | 35¢ | −53pp | $28 | polymarket | /markets/deportivo-la-guaira-fc-vs-club-bolvar-deportivo-la-polymarket-0xc1b5b29ed69618b15f2c5fee5fc8f9713b2c2d59deb481e8531e61bf502c4113 |
| Draw (Deportivo La Guaira FC vs. Club Bolívar) | 31¢ | +74pp | $177 | polymarket | /markets/deportivo-la-guaira-fc-vs-club-bolvar-draw-deporti-polymarket-0x6baef589239d6f3714b5e8e980dee2b50911de8ca6f519736df7040c9e4732db |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Club Bolívar | Deportivo La Guaira FC | Draw (Deportivo La Guaira FC vs. Club Bolívar) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-02 | 40 | 33 | — |
| 2026-05-03 | 41 | 32 | — |
| 2026-05-06 | 26 | 53 | 26 |
| 2026-05-07 | 0 | 0 | 100 |

_4 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-07 · Draw (Deportivo La Guaira FC vs. Club Bolívar) +74pp 26→100¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-07 · Deportivo La Guaira FC −53pp 53→0¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-07 · Club Bolívar −26pp 26→0¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-06 · Deportivo La Guaira FC +21pp 32→53¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-06 · Club Bolívar −15pp 41→26¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

This probability reflects market expectations that Deportivo La Guaira FC will win their match against Club Bolívar, currently priced at 41% across linked prediction contracts. The assessment is driven by team form, home-field advantage, and recent head-to-head records between these Venezuelan and Bolivian clubs respectively. The match outcome itself will be the primary catalyst resolving this uncertainty—the game's result will either confirm or contradict the current market pricing. Factors like lineup changes, injuries to key players, or weather conditions closer to match day could shift sentiment materially. Trading volume across related markets remains modest, suggesting limited certainty among participants and room for probability adjustment based on new information or updated team news.

### Key factors

- Recent league standings and win-loss records for both Deportivo La Guaira and Club Bolívar in their domestic competitions
- Head-to-head historical results between these two clubs, if available, and any home-field performance differentials
- Injury reports or roster changes for key players announced prior to match day
- Weather conditions and any other environmental factors affecting play in the scheduled match location
- Liquidity and volume patterns in related prediction markets, indicating confidence levels among traders

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/deportivo-la-guaira-fc-vs-club-bolvar
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=deportivo-la-guaira-fc-vs-club-bolvar

## License

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