# "The Devil Wears Prada 2" Opening Weekend Box Office: 80-90m

> Closed. Last odds frozen 3 d ago — final outcome on the venue.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/devil-wears-prada-2-opening-weekend-box-office-8090m
Updated: 2026-05-05T06:35:38.198Z
Category: general
Status: historical
Closes: 2026-05-04

## Headline

- Probability: 97% (liquidity-weighted across 1 contract)
- Venue: Polymarket (1 contract)
- 24h volume: $44K

## Bound contracts (1)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 70-80m | 97¢ | +4pp | $44K | polymarket | /markets/the-devil-wears-prada-2-opening-weekend-box-office-polymarket-0xa5b00fb91dd458cf79761b80e68eff24003f89ae59cb630f5ab90d809e4058b9 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-02 | 89 |
| 2026-05-03 | 93 |

_2 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-03 · 70-80m +4pp 89→93¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

This probability estimates a 5% chance that "The Devil Wears Prada 2" will open domestically between $80-90 million. The contract pricing reflects market skepticism about this outcome, with the $70-80m bracket trading significantly higher at 93 cents, suggesting traders expect a lower opening. The sequel's performance depends on brand strength—the original opened to $27.4 million in 2006, adjusted for inflation—against modern box office conditions and competitive releases. Key uncertainties include the final cast confirmation, marketing spend, and the film's positioning against other releases in its opening weekend. The movie's actual opening weekend box office will resolve this contract definitively upon wide release.

### Key factors

- The original 'The Devil Wears Prada' (2006) opened to $27.4 million domestically, requiring significant audience expansion or inflation-adjusted growth for an $80-90m opening in 2026
- Market pricing shows 70% of volume trading in the $70-80m bracket versus 7% in the $80-90m bracket, indicating trader consensus favors a lower opening
- Meryl Streep's confirmed participation and the film's prestige positioning will compete against summer 2026 tentpoles for audience attention and screen count allocation
- The film's actual opening weekend box office—measured by studios and reported by box office tracking services—will provide definitive resolution with no interpretation variance
- Wide release date confirmation and pre-release marketing campaign intensity will serve as leading indicators in the weeks before opening weekend

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/devil-wears-prada-2-opening-weekend-box-office-8090m
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=devil-wears-prada-2-opening-weekend-box-office-8090m

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