# Will Germany ZEW economic sentiment index for May 2026 be above -7.5

> Above -40.0 leads at 95%, runner-up 92% across 15 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 1 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/dezew
Updated: 2026-05-09T04:20:39.623Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-05-12

## Headline

- Leader: Above -40.0 at 95%
- Runner-up: Above -42.5 at 92%
- Outcomes: 15 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (15 contracts)
- 24h volume: $161

## Bound contracts (15)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above -40.0 | 95¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-germany-zew-economic-sentiment-index-for-may-kalshi-kxdezew-26may12-t-40.0 |
| Above -42.5 | 92¢ | +4pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-germany-zew-economic-sentiment-index-for-may-kalshi-kxdezew-26may12-t-42.5 |
| Above -37.5 | 86¢ | −11pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-germany-zew-economic-sentiment-index-for-may-kalshi-kxdezew-26may12-t-37.5 |
| Above -35.0 | 85¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-germany-zew-economic-sentiment-index-for-may-kalshi-kxdezew-26may12-t-35.0 |
| Above -32.5 | 79¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-germany-zew-economic-sentiment-index-for-may-kalshi-kxdezew-26may12-t-32.5 |
| Above -30.0 | 75¢ | +22pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-germany-zew-economic-sentiment-index-for-may-kalshi-kxdezew-26may12-t-30.0 |
| Above -27.5 | 69¢ | +20pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-germany-zew-economic-sentiment-index-for-may-kalshi-kxdezew-26may12-t-27.5 |
| Above -25.0 | 64¢ | +18pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-germany-zew-economic-sentiment-index-for-may-kalshi-kxdezew-26may12-t-25.0 |
| Above -22.5 | 60¢ | — | $157 | kalshi | /markets/will-germany-zew-economic-sentiment-index-for-may-kalshi-kxdezew-26may12-t-22.5 |
| Above -20.0 | 52¢ | −8pp | $5 | kalshi | /markets/will-germany-zew-economic-sentiment-index-for-may-kalshi-kxdezew-26may12-t-20.0 |
| Above -17.5 | 38¢ | −8pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-germany-zew-economic-sentiment-index-for-may-kalshi-kxdezew-26may12-t-17.5 |
| Above -15.0 | 30¢ | +12pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-germany-zew-economic-sentiment-index-for-may-kalshi-kxdezew-26may12-t-15.0 |
| Above -12.5 | 21¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-germany-zew-economic-sentiment-index-for-may-kalshi-kxdezew-26may12-t-12.5 |
| Above -10.0 | 12¢ | +8pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-germany-zew-economic-sentiment-index-for-may-kalshi-kxdezew-26may12-t-10.0 |
| Above -7.5 | 9¢ | +4pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-germany-zew-economic-sentiment-index-for-may-kalshi-kxdezew-26may12-t-7.5 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Above -40.0 | Above -42.5 | Above -37.5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-29 | 49 | 40 | 39 |
| 2026-04-30 | 95 | 96 | 95 |
| 2026-05-02 | 96 | 97 | 97 |
| 2026-05-06 | — | 92 | — |
| 2026-05-07 | — | 96 | 86 |

_5 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-07 · Above -30.0 +22pp 53→75¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-07 · Above -27.5 +20pp 49→69¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-07 · Above -25.0 +18pp 46→64¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-07 · Above -37.5 −11pp 97→86¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-07 · Above -20.0 −8pp 61→53¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This probability reflects whether Germany's ZEW (Centre for European Economic Research) economic sentiment index will exceed -7.5 when released for May 2026. The ZEW index measures investor and analyst expectations about economic conditions over the next six months, ranging from -100 (all pessimistic) to +100 (all optimistic). Currently trading at 53%, the market suggests slightly better odds than even that sentiment will be above this threshold. The index typically responds to factors like eurozone growth forecasts, inflation expectations, monetary policy signals from the ECB, and geopolitical risks affecting European markets. The May 2026 ZEW data will be released in early June, providing a critical read on how investors assessed economic momentum during a period of potential policy shifts and global economic transitions. Recent readings and competing economic headwinds in Europe will be primary drivers of whether expectations remain below or climb above the -7.5 level.

### Key factors

- Historical ZEW readings from late 2025 and early 2026 to establish baseline sentiment trajectory
- ECB monetary policy stance and interest rate expectations as of May 2026, which significantly influence forward-looking investor sentiment
- Eurozone GDP growth forecasts and actual economic data released in the months leading up to the May survey
- Inflation trends in Germany and the broader eurozone relative to ECB targets
- Geopolitical developments and energy price movements that could shift risk assessments for European economic outlook

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/dezew
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=dezew

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.