# Rostock vs Stuttgart

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 31% across 20 contracts — refreshed 20 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/dfbpokaladvance
Updated: 2026-08-10T04:20:49.436Z
Category: general
Status: active

## Headline

- Probability: 31% (liquidity-weighted across 20 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (20 contracts)
- 24h volume: $2K

## Bound contracts (20)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dresden To Advance: Dresden advances | 84¢ | — | $639 | kalshi | /markets/rhynern-vs-dresden-dresden-to-advance-dresden-adva-kalshi-kxdfbpokaladvance-26aug23wessgd-sgd |
| Paderborn To Advance: Paderborn advances | 84¢ | — | $521 | kalshi | /markets/phonix-lubeck-vs-paderborn-paderborn-to-advance-pa-kalshi-kxdfbpokaladvance-26aug23phopad-pad |
| Hannover To Advance: Hannover advances | 84¢ | +45pp | $521 | kalshi | /markets/hemelingen-vs-hannover-hannover-to-advance-hannove-kalshi-kxdfbpokaladvance-26aug22hemh96-h96 |
| Heidenheim To Advance: Heidenheim advances | 25¢ | +14pp | $406 | kalshi | /markets/jeddeloh-ii-vs-heidenheim-heidenheim-to-advance-he-kalshi-kxdfbpokaladvance-26aug23jedfch-fch |
| Magdeburg To Advance: Magdeburg advances | 65¢ | +8pp | $300 | kalshi | /markets/bahlinger-sc-vs-magdeburg-magdeburg-to-advance-mag-kalshi-kxdfbpokaladvance-26aug23bahfcm-fcm |
| Frankfurt To Advance: Frankfurt advances | 66¢ | +42pp | $33 | kalshi | /markets/st-tonis-vs-frankfurt-frankfurt-to-advance-frankfu-kalshi-kxdfbpokaladvance-26aug21sttsge-sge |
| Mainz To Advance: Mainz advances | 22¢ | +25pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/krieschow-vs-mainz-mainz-to-advance-mainz-advances-kalshi-kxdfbpokaladvance-26aug23vfbm05-m05 |
| M´gladbach To Advance: M´gladbach advances | 23¢ | +19pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/schott-mainz-vs-mgladbach-mgladbach-to-advance-mgl-kalshi-kxdfbpokaladvance-26aug23scmbmg-bmg |
| 1860 Munich To Advance: 1860 Munich advances | 3¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/1860-munich-vs-kiel-1860-munich-to-advance-1860-mu-kalshi-kxdfbpokaladvance-26aug22m60hok-m60 |
| Rot-Weiss Essen To Advance: Rot-Weiss Essen advances | 4¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/rot-weiss-essen-vs-st-pauli-rot-weiss-essen-to-adv-kalshi-kxdfbpokaladvance-26aug23rwestp-rwe |
| St. Pauli To Advance: St. Pauli advances | 32¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/rot-weiss-essen-vs-st-pauli-st-pauli-to-advance-st-kalshi-kxdfbpokaladvance-26aug23rwestp-stp |
| Phonix Lubeck To Advance: Phonix Lubeck advances | 3¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/phonix-lubeck-vs-paderborn-phonix-lubeck-to-advanc-kalshi-kxdfbpokaladvance-26aug23phopad-pho |
| Dusseldorf To Advance: Dusseldorf advances | 4¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/dusseldorf-vs-freiburg-dusseldorf-to-advance-dusse-kalshi-kxdfbpokaladvance-26aug23f95scf-f95 |
| Freiburg To Advance: Freiburg advances | 46¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/dusseldorf-vs-freiburg-freiburg-to-advance-freibur-kalshi-kxdfbpokaladvance-26aug23f95scf-scf |
| Rhynern To Advance: Rhynern advances | 3¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/rhynern-vs-dresden-rhynern-to-advance-rhynern-adva-kalshi-kxdfbpokaladvance-26aug23wessgd-wes |
| Krieschow To Advance: Krieschow advances | 5¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/krieschow-vs-mainz-krieschow-to-advance-krieschow-kalshi-kxdfbpokaladvance-26aug23vfbm05-vfb |
| Schott Mainz To Advance: Schott Mainz advances | 5¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/schott-mainz-vs-mgladbach-schott-mainz-to-advance-kalshi-kxdfbpokaladvance-26aug23scmbmg-scm |
| Jena To Advance: Jena advances | 3¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/jena-vs-darmstadt-jena-to-advance-jena-advances-kalshi-kxdfbpokaladvance-26aug23fcczd98-fccz |
| Darmstadt To Advance: Darmstadt advances | 46¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/jena-vs-darmstadt-darmstadt-to-advance-darmstadt-a-kalshi-kxdfbpokaladvance-26aug23fcczd98-d98 |
| Braunschweig To Advance: Braunschweig advances | 4¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/braunschweig-vs-union-berlin-braunschweig-to-advan-kalshi-kxdfbpokaladvance-26aug23ebsuni-ebs |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-08-07 | 3 |
| 2026-08-08 | 13 |
| 2026-08-09 | 20 |
| 2026-08-10 | 25 |

_4 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-08-09 · Hannover To Advance: Hannover advances +45pp 4→49¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-09 · Frankfurt To Advance: Frankfurt advances +42pp 33→75¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-08 · Frankfurt To Advance: Frankfurt advances +30pp 3→33¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-10 · Mainz To Advance: Mainz advances +25pp 8→33¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-10 · M´gladbach To Advance: M´gladbach advances +19pp 7→26¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This 4% probability reflects market expectations that Rostock will defeat Stuttgart in an upcoming match. The low odds suggest Stuttgart is heavily favored, likely due to relative league position, recent form, or squad quality differences. Key drivers of this probability include Stuttgart's historical performance advantage and current standings, while factors that could shift the market would be significant roster changes, recent injuries to Stuttgart's key players, or Rostock demonstrating unexpected form improvement. The match outcome will be determined when the game is played, which serves as the resolution event for this contract.

### Key factors

- Stuttgart's league position and historical head-to-head record against Rostock
- Current season performance metrics and recent match results for both squads
- Injury status of key players, particularly for Stuttgart
- Rostock's home-field advantage if applicable
- Market pricing across multiple contracts suggesting consensus on Stuttgart as the stronger side

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/dfbpokaladvance
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=dfbpokaladvance

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.