# Leverkusen vs Bayern Munich Winner

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 27% across 20 contracts — refreshed 12 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/dfbpokalgame
Updated: 2026-08-11T04:20:49.290Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-08-25

## Headline

- Probability: 27% (liquidity-weighted across 20 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (20 contracts)
- 24h volume: $1K
- Resolved: Bayern Munich

## Bound contracts (20)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reg Time: Hannover | 68¢ | +21pp | $586 | kalshi | /markets/hemelingen-vs-hannover-winner-reg-time-hannover-kalshi-kxdfbpokalgame-26aug22hemh96-h96 |
| Reg Time: Frankfurt | 11¢ | +8pp | $293 | kalshi | /markets/st-tonis-vs-frankfurt-winner-reg-time-frankfurt-kalshi-kxdfbpokalgame-26aug21sttsge-sge |
| Reg Time: Mainz | 87¢ | +13pp | $244 | kalshi | /markets/krieschow-vs-mainz-winner-reg-time-mainz-kalshi-kxdfbpokalgame-26aug23vfbm05-m05 |
| Reg Time: Paderborn | 72¢ | −2pp | $68 | kalshi | /markets/phonix-lubeck-vs-paderborn-winner-reg-time-paderbo-kalshi-kxdfbpokalgame-26aug23phopad-pad |
| Reg Time: Tie | 3¢ | — | $68 | kalshi | /markets/st-tonis-vs-frankfurt-winner-reg-time-tie-kalshi-kxdfbpokalgame-26aug21sttsge-tie |
| Reg Time: Magdeburg | 78¢ | −4pp | $57 | kalshi | /markets/bahlinger-sc-vs-magdeburg-winner-reg-time-magdebur-kalshi-kxdfbpokalgame-26aug23bahfcm-fcm |
| Reg Time: St. Tonis | 5¢ | — | $27 | kalshi | /markets/st-tonis-vs-frankfurt-winner-reg-time-st-tonis-kalshi-kxdfbpokalgame-26aug21sttsge-stt |
| Reg Time: M´gladbach | 71¢ | −8pp | $25 | kalshi | /markets/schott-mainz-vs-mgladbach-winner-reg-time-mgladbac-kalshi-kxdfbpokalgame-26aug23scmbmg-bmg |
| Reg Time: Bahlinger SC | 3¢ | — | $15 | kalshi | /markets/bahlinger-sc-vs-magdeburg-winner-reg-time-bahlinge-kalshi-kxdfbpokalgame-26aug23bahfcm-bah |
| Reg Time: Dresden | 37¢ | +6pp | $11 | kalshi | /markets/rhynern-vs-dresden-winner-reg-time-dresden-kalshi-kxdfbpokalgame-26aug23wessgd-sgd |
| Reg Time: Heidenheim | 17¢ | +10pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/jeddeloh-ii-vs-heidenheim-winner-reg-time-heidenhe-kalshi-kxdfbpokalgame-26aug23jedfch-fch |
| Reg Time: Trier | 4¢ | +6pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/trier-vs-leipzig-winner-reg-time-trier-kalshi-kxdfbpokalgame-26aug22trirbl-tri |
| Reg Time: Rostock | 5¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/rostock-vs-stuttgart-winner-reg-time-rostock-kalshi-kxdfbpokalgame-26aug21hanvfb-han |
| Reg Time: Tie | 5¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/rostock-vs-stuttgart-winner-reg-time-tie-kalshi-kxdfbpokalgame-26aug21hanvfb-tie |
| Reg Time: Stuttgart | 36¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/rostock-vs-stuttgart-winner-reg-time-stuttgart-kalshi-kxdfbpokalgame-26aug21hanvfb-vfb |
| Reg Time: Karlsruhe | 6¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/munster-vs-karlsruhe-winner-reg-time-karlsruhe-kalshi-kxdfbpokalgame-26aug21pmuksc-ksc |
| Reg Time: Munster | 5¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/munster-vs-karlsruhe-winner-reg-time-munster-kalshi-kxdfbpokalgame-26aug21pmuksc-pmu |
| Reg Time: Tie | 5¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/munster-vs-karlsruhe-winner-reg-time-tie-kalshi-kxdfbpokalgame-26aug21pmuksc-tie |
| Reg Time: Kaiserslautern | 24¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/mannheim-vs-kaiserslautern-winner-reg-time-kaisers-kalshi-kxdfbpokalgame-26aug21wamfck-fck |
| Reg Time: Tie | 5¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/mannheim-vs-kaiserslautern-winner-reg-time-tie-kalshi-kxdfbpokalgame-26aug21wamfck-tie |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-08-08 | 6 |
| 2026-08-09 | 26 |
| 2026-08-10 | 35 |

_3 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-08-10 · Reg Time: Hannover +21pp 45→66¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-10 · Reg Time: Mainz +13pp 4→17¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-10 · Reg Time: Heidenheim +10pp 4→14¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-10 · Reg Time: Frankfurt +8pp 9→17¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-10 · Reg Time: M´gladbach −8pp 41→33¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This market represents the odds that Bayer Leverkusen will defeat FC Bayern Munich in an upcoming match. The 5% probability reflects Bayern's historical dominance in German football, suggesting traders assess Leverkusen as a significant underdog. The market is driven by two primary considerations: Bayern's superior squad quality, recent form, and head-to-head record against Leverkusen, which would sustain low odds for the challenger; conversely, Leverkusen's recent competitive improvements and any Bayern injuries or poor form preceding the match could shift probability upward. Resolution depends on the scheduled match result, which will determine whether Leverkusen pulls off a major upset or falls to the favorite as expected.

### Key factors

- Bayern Munich's 7+ year pattern of German league dominance and superior individual player quality relative to Leverkusen
- Recent head-to-head performance between the clubs in league and cup competitions over the past 2-3 seasons
- Injury status of key Bayern players (defenders, midfielders, or forwards) in the days immediately before the match
- Leverkusen's current win streak or recent performance trajectory relative to their season average
- Match context such as competition stage (league vs. cup), location (home/away), and Bayern's remaining fixture load that could affect rotation or intensity

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/dfbpokalgame
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=dfbpokalgame

## License

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