# Will the Democratic party win 230-233 House seats in the 120th Congress

> 230-233 leads at 12%, runner-up 10% across 12 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 32 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/dhouseseats
Updated: 2026-06-26T00:20:51.869Z
Category: politics · Topic: election-2026
Status: active
Closes: 2027-02-01

## Headline

- Leader: 230-233 at 12%
- Runner-up: 226-229 at 10%
- Outcomes: 12 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (12 contracts)
- 24h volume: $733

## Bound contracts (12)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 230-233 | 12¢ | ±0 | $142 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-democratic-party-win-230-233-house-seats-kalshi-kxdhouseseats-27-232 |
| 226-229 | 10¢ | −1pp | $257 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-democratic-party-win-226-229-house-seats-kalshi-kxdhouseseats-27-228 |
| 238-241 | 10¢ | +1pp | $102 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-democratic-party-win-238-241-house-seats-kalshi-kxdhouseseats-27-240 |
| 234-237 | 10¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-democratic-party-win-234-237-house-seats-kalshi-kxdhouseseats-27-236 |
| Above 249 | 9¢ | +1pp | $37 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-democratic-party-win-above-249-house-seat-kalshi-kxdhouseseats-27-249 |
| 222-225 | 8¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-democratic-party-win-222-225-house-seats-kalshi-kxdhouseseats-27-224 |
| Below 210 | 8¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-democratic-party-win-below-210-house-seat-kalshi-kxdhouseseats-27-210 |
| 210-213 | 8¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-democratic-party-win-210-213-house-seats-kalshi-kxdhouseseats-27-212 |
| 214-217 | 8¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-democratic-party-win-214-217-house-seats-kalshi-kxdhouseseats-27-216 |
| 218-221 | 5¢ | −1pp | $100 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-democratic-party-win-218-221-house-seats-kalshi-kxdhouseseats-27-220 |
| 246-249 | 4¢ | −1pp | $66 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-democratic-party-win-246-249-house-seats-kalshi-kxdhouseseats-27-248 |
| 242-245 | 4¢ | −2pp | $29 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-democratic-party-win-242-245-house-seats-kalshi-kxdhouseseats-27-244 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | 230-233 | 226-229 | 238-241 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-29 | 9 | 10 | 8 |
| 2026-06-12 | — | — | 8 |
| 2026-06-13 | 9 | 10 | — |
| 2026-06-16 | 11 | 10 | 9 |
| 2026-06-18 | 11 | — | 9 |
| 2026-06-19 | 12 | — | — |
| 2026-06-24 | 11 | — | 10 |

_19 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Analysis

This contract settles based on the Democratic party's final House seat count in the 120th Congress, with an 11% probability assigned to the 230-233 range. This specific band represents one outcome among a wider distribution: contracts show material probability mass in ranges both below (226-229 at 10%) and above (234-237 at 10%), with significant tail risk toward either 210 seats or above 249. The narrow 11% probability reflects that while 230-233 is plausible, it is not a central expectation. The market appears to price higher uncertainty rather than consensus, as the leader and several runners-up all cluster around 8-12 cents. Key drivers include 2026 midterm performance against the White House party, redistricting effects that persist from 2022, and turnout dynamics in specific swing districts. The resolution will occur after November 2026 general election results are finalized and certified.

### Key factors

- The 230-233 range represents roughly 48-49% of current House seats, implying modestly above the historical average for opposition parties in midterm elections
- Market prices show roughly equal probability mass across multiple adjacent ranges (226-237 seats span 22% combined), suggesting high uncertainty about the exact outcome
- Significant tail risk exists with 8% probability for Democratic totals below 210 seats and 10% for above 249 seats, indicating the market is pricing material variance around central scenarios
- The 120th Congress begins in January 2027; resolution depends on November 2026 election results and subsequent certification without major vacancies or special elections before that date
- Trading volume concentrates in the 230-233 contract ($377 daily volume), while adjacent ranges show notably lower volume, suggesting either high confidence in this band or liquidity concentration

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/dhouseseats
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=dhouseseats
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/election-2026

## License

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