# Will the Democratic party hold more than 250 House seats in the 120th Congress

> Above 211 leads at 89%, runner-up 83% across 14 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 20 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/dhouseseatsdir
Updated: 2026-08-10T06:20:49.996Z
Category: politics · Topic: election-2026
Status: active
Closes: 2027-02-01

## Headline

- Leader: Above 211 at 89%
- Runner-up: Above 214 at 83%
- Outcomes: 14 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (14 contracts)
- 24h volume: $39

## Bound contracts (14)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 211 | 89¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-democratic-party-hold-more-than-211-house-kalshi-kxdhouseseatsdir-27-a211 |
| Above 214 | 83¢ | +2pp | $8 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-democratic-party-hold-more-than-214-house-kalshi-kxdhouseseatsdir-27-a214 |
| Above 217 | 77¢ | +1pp | $2 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-democratic-party-hold-more-than-217-house-kalshi-kxdhouseseatsdir-27-a217 |
| Above 220 | 70¢ | +1pp | $1 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-democratic-party-hold-more-than-220-house-kalshi-kxdhouseseatsdir-27-a220 |
| Above 223 | 63¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-democratic-party-hold-more-than-223-house-kalshi-kxdhouseseatsdir-27-a223 |
| Above 226 | 58¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-democratic-party-hold-more-than-226-house-kalshi-kxdhouseseatsdir-27-a226 |
| Above 229 | 49¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-democratic-party-hold-more-than-229-house-kalshi-kxdhouseseatsdir-27-a229 |
| Above 232 | 40¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-democratic-party-hold-more-than-232-house-kalshi-kxdhouseseatsdir-27-a232 |
| Above 235 | 32¢ | −1pp | $27 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-democratic-party-hold-more-than-235-house-kalshi-kxdhouseseatsdir-27-a235 |
| Above 238 | 24¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-democratic-party-hold-more-than-238-house-kalshi-kxdhouseseatsdir-27-a238 |
| Above 241 | 17¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-democratic-party-hold-more-than-241-house-kalshi-kxdhouseseatsdir-27-a241 |
| Above 244 | 12¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-democratic-party-hold-more-than-244-house-kalshi-kxdhouseseatsdir-27-a244 |
| Above 247 | 7¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-democratic-party-hold-more-than-247-house-kalshi-kxdhouseseatsdir-27-a247 |
| Above 250 | 3¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-democratic-party-hold-more-than-250-house-kalshi-kxdhouseseatsdir-27-a250 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Above 211 | Above 214 | Above 217 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-20 | — | — | 77 |
| 2026-07-29 | 90 | — | — |
| 2026-08-01 | 89 | 82 | 76 |
| 2026-08-04 | — | 81 | 56 |
| 2026-08-05 | — | 83 | 77 |
| 2026-08-06 | 90 | — | — |
| 2026-08-08 | 89 | — | — |
| 2026-08-10 | — | — | 77 |

_9 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-08-05 · Above 217 +21pp 56→77¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-04 · Above 217 −20pp 76→56¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-05 · Above 220 +3pp 68→71¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-05 · Above 226 +3pp 54→57¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This contract estimates an 89% chance that Democrats will hold at least 211 House seats in the 120th Congress (which begins January 2027), but only an 8% chance they'll exceed 250 seats. The probability reflects expectations about the 2026 midterm elections, where Democrats currently control 213 seats. The 89% figure suggests markets expect Democrats to maintain or gain a modest number of seats, while the sharp drop-off at 250 reflects skepticism about a significant expansion. Key drivers include historical midterm patterns (the party holding the presidency typically loses seats), current redistricting effects, and generic ballot polling. Resolution occurs after November 5, 2026 election results are certified and the new Congress is sworn in January 2027. Market confidence in the 211+ threshold versus uncertainty above 250 reflects uncertainty about both overall national trends and individual district competitiveness.

### Key factors

- Generic ballot polling showing Democratic vs Republican support as of mid-2026
- Historical midterm losses for the party holding the presidency (Democrats held 213 seats entering 2026)
- State-by-state redistricting outcomes and their effect on Democratic-leaning districts
- Candidate quality and fundraising disparities in competitive districts targeted by both parties
- Turnout and engagement levels in 2026 compared to recent election cycles

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/dhouseseatsdir
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=dhouseseatsdir
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/election-2026

## License

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