# Will legislation appropriating at least $1 billion to U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) for FY2026 become law before May 1, 2026

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 31% across 19 contracts — refreshed 2 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/dhscomponent
Updated: 2026-06-08T05:20:11.714Z
Category: legislation
Status: active
Closes: 2027-11-03

## Headline

- Probability: 31% (liquidity-weighted across 19 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (19 contracts)
- 24h volume: $5K

## Bound contracts (19)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Before Aug 1, 2026 | 3¢ | +1pp | $3K | kalshi | /markets/will-legislation-that-requires-proof-of-us-citizen-kalshi-kxelectionbill-aug01 |
| Before Jan 1, 2027 | 13¢ | −1pp | $2K | kalshi | /markets/will-legislation-that-requires-proof-of-us-citizen-kalshi-kxelectionbill-27jan01 |
| Republicans, 7+ pts | 20¢ | −1pp | $100 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-margin-of-victory-for-republicans-in-the-kalshi-kxmidtermmov-mesenr-p7 |
| Democrats, 2+ pts | 39¢ | −1pp | $21 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-margin-of-victory-for-democrats-in-the-us-kalshi-kxmidtermmov-ohsend-p2 |
| Democrats, 4+ pts | 27¢ | +4pp | $10 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-margin-of-victory-for-democrats-in-the-us-kalshi-kxmidtermmov-ohsend-p4 |
| Republicans, 30+ pts | 84¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-margin-of-victory-for-republicans-in-the-kalshi-kxmidtermmov-wysenr-p30 |
| Republicans, 4+ pts | 13¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-margin-of-victory-for-republicans-in-the-kalshi-kxmidtermmov-ohsenr-p4 |
| Democrats, 8+ pts | 5¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-margin-of-victory-for-democrats-in-the-us-kalshi-kxmidtermmov-ohsend-p8 |
| Democrats, 11+ pts | 60¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-margin-of-victory-for-democrats-in-the-us-kalshi-kxmidtermmov-mnsend-p11 |
| Republicans, 1+ pts | 18¢ | −2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-margin-of-victory-for-republicans-in-the-kalshi-kxmidtermmov-ncsenr-p1 |
| Ken Paxton, 1+ pts | 59¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-margin-of-victory-for-republicans-in-the-kalshi-kxmidtermmov-txsenr-p1 |
| Democrats, 2+ pts | 21¢ | +20pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-margin-of-victory-for-democrats-in-the-us-kalshi-kxmidtermmov-iasend-p2 |
| Democrats, 6+ pts | 15¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-margin-of-victory-for-democrats-in-the-us-kalshi-kxmidtermmov-ohsend-p6 |
| Republicans, 26+ pts | 91¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-margin-of-victory-for-republicans-in-the-kalshi-kxmidtermmov-wysenr-p26 |
| Democrats, 9+ pts | 42¢ | +2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-margin-of-victory-for-democrats-in-the-us-kalshi-kxmidtermmov-ncsend-p9 |
| Republicans, 6+ pts | 10¢ | +7pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-margin-of-victory-for-republicans-in-the-kalshi-kxmidtermmov-ohsenr-p6 |
| Democrats, 6+ pts | 47¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-margin-of-victory-for-democrats-in-the-us-kalshi-kxmidtermmov-gasend-p6 |
| Republicans, 3+ pts | 15¢ | +2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-margin-of-victory-for-republicans-in-the-kalshi-kxmidtermmov-misenr-p3 |
| 14 and above | 8¢ | −2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-democrats-win-at-least-14-seats-in-2026-us-ho-kalshi-kxtxhousedemseats-26nov03-a13 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-09 | 21 |
| 2026-05-25 | 29 |
| 2026-06-01 | 29 |
| 2026-06-08 | 28 |

_31 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-01 · Democrats, 9+ pts +8pp 27→35¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-02 · Democrats, 9+ pts +5pp 35→40¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-02 · Democrats, 4+ pts +4pp 23→27¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This probability reflects the likelihood that Congress will pass and the President will sign legislation allocating at least $1 billion to U.S. Customs and Border Protection in fiscal year 2026 before May 1, 2026. The 16% probability suggests this outcome is considered unlikely at this point in the year. The low probability likely reflects that we are already three months into the fiscal year, which began October 1, 2025, leaving limited time for legislative action. Major spending bills typically pass during specific windows—often in advance of fiscal deadlines or as part of broader appropriations packages. The primary driver of the current level is procedural timing; funding legislation must navigate committee consideration, floor debate, and presidential approval within a compressed timeframe. A significant catalyst would be Congress scheduling markup or floor votes on appropriations bills in May, or broader spending legislation being introduced that includes border security funding.

### Key factors

- The fiscal year began October 1, 2025, meaning the May 1 deadline leaves only 7 months for legislative action, a tight window for appropriations bills
- Appropriations historically pass as omnibus packages combining multiple agencies rather than standalone bills, making the probability dependent on broader budget negotiations
- Congressional schedule and committee activity in May 2026 will indicate whether border funding is a priority item being actively moved toward passage
- Any prior passage of spending bills in FY2026 without CBP funding would reduce the likelihood of a last-minute $1B+ appropriation before May 1
- The political composition of Congress and executive preferences regarding border security funding influence whether such legislation receives floor time and support

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/dhscomponent
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=dhscomponent

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