# Will legislation that, upon becoming law, results in the Department of Homeland Security being funded at 12:01 AM ET the calendar day after enactment become law before May 15, 2026

> Before Jul 1, 2026 leads at 91%, runner-up 76% across 19 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 2 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/dhsfund
Updated: 2026-06-08T05:20:09.825Z
Category: legislation
Status: active
Closes: 2027-01-01

## Headline

- Leader: Before Jul 1, 2026 at 91%
- Runner-up: Housing for the 21st Century Act at 76%
- Outcomes: 19 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (19 contracts)
- 24h volume: $7K

## Bound contracts (19)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Before Jul 1, 2026 | 91¢ | +5pp | $1K | kalshi | /markets/will-legislation-that-funds-ices-enforcement-and-r-kalshi-kxiceero-26mar-jul01 |
| Housing for the 21st Century Act | 76¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-legislation-that-would-revise-federal-housing-kalshi-kxbills-hous |
| Yes | 64¢ | −2pp | $13 | kalshi | /markets/will-legislation-that-removes-andrew-mountbatten-w-kalshi-kxandrewsuccession-27jan01 |
| Hot Rotisserie Chicken Act | 60¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-legislation-that-amends-the-food-and-nutritio-kalshi-kxbills-hrca |
| DEFIANCE Act | 46¢ | −1pp | $93 | kalshi | /markets/will-legislation-that-creates-a-federal-civil-laws-kalshi-kxbills-defy |
| ROTOR Act | 38¢ | −4pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-legislation-that-mandates-expanded-adoption-o-kalshi-kxbills-rotor |
| Critical-minerals stockpile | 34¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-legislation-that-establishes-a-federal-critic-kalshi-kxbills-min |
| Export-control chip security | 27¢ | −2pp | $49 | kalshi | /markets/will-legislation-that-requires-location-verificati-kalshi-kxbills-chip |
| FISA Section 702 reauthorization (2 years) | 27¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-legislation-that-reauthorizes-fisa-title-vii-kalshi-kxbills-fisa |
| SHOWER Act | 18¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-legislation-that-redefines-showerhead-for-doe-kalshi-kxbills-show |
| Before Jan 1, 2027 | 13¢ | −1pp | $2K | kalshi | /markets/will-legislation-that-requires-proof-of-us-citizen-kalshi-kxelectionbill-27jan01 |
| $2.50 Coin | 9¢ | +1pp | $137 | kalshi | /markets/will-legislation-that-would-require-treasury-to-mi-kalshi-kxbills-250c |
| Yes | 7¢ | −7pp | $78 | kalshi | /markets/will-legislation-that-imposes-liability-for-damage-kalshi-kxnyaibill-27jan01 |
| Smithsonian Women’s History Museum | 7¢ | −13pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-legislation-that-authorizes-siting-the-womens-kalshi-kxbills-smith |
| White House ballroom funding | 6¢ | −3pp | $29 | kalshi | /markets/will-legislation-that-authorizes-funding-for-const-kalshi-kxbills-ball |
| Yes | 6¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-legislation-that-decouples-new-york-tax-law-f-kalshi-kxnyqsbs-27jan01 |
| Trump's Birthday as a federal holiday | 5¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-legislation-that-designates-june-14-the-birth-kalshi-kxbills-djtb |
| Before Aug 1, 2026 | 3¢ | +1pp | $3K | kalshi | /markets/will-legislation-that-requires-proof-of-us-citizen-kalshi-kxelectionbill-aug01 |
| Mandatory body-worn cameras | 3¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-legislation-that-requires-ice-and-cbp-personn-kalshi-kxicereform-cam |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Before Jul 1, 2026 | Housing for the 21st Century Act | Yes |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-09 | 92 | — | — |
| 2026-05-11 | — | 81 | — |
| 2026-05-12 | 91 | 73 | 66 |
| 2026-05-25 | 77 | 86 | 66 |
| 2026-05-30 | 68 | — | 64 |
| 2026-06-01 | 78 | 79 | — |
| 2026-06-08 | 89 | 76 | — |

_31 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-05 · Yes −37pp 70→33¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-06 · Yes −19pp 33→14¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-04 · Yes −11pp 81→70¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-01 · FISA Section 702 reauthorization (2 years) −10pp 31→21¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-01 · Before Jul 1, 2026 +9pp 69→78¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This question asks whether Congress will pass legislation funding the Department of Homeland Security with an effective date of 12:01 AM ET the day after the bill becomes law, before May 15, 2026. At 85%, the market reflects high confidence this will occur. The timing is driven by Congress's regular appropriations deadlines and the mandatory nature of DHS funding. The main uncertainty centers on whether lawmakers can reach agreement on funding levels and policy riders before the May 15 deadline, or whether they extend existing funding through a continuing resolution instead. The key catalyst is the congressional budget deadline itself, typically mid-May. Passage depends on whether appropriators prioritize DHS funding separately versus bundling it with other agencies, and whether partisan disagreements over immigration enforcement or other DHS functions create obstacles.

### Key factors

- Congress has historically passed most appropriations bills before fiscal year deadlines, though continuing resolutions remain common in divided governments
- DHS funding is typically separated as a distinct appropriations category, suggesting dedicated legislative focus rather than being packaged with unrelated legislation
- The May 15 deadline is approximately 12 days away, providing a compressed window for legislative action that either enables urgent passage or forces a temporary funding extension
- Current divided government control and active policy disputes over immigration enforcement and border operations could delay agreement on DHS-specific funding levels and conditions
- Market pricing at 85% indicates traders assess routine appropriations passage as likely but not certain, pricing in realistic failure scenarios around legislative gridlock or strategic delays

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/dhsfund
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=dhsfund

## License

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