# Will Miguel Díaz-Canel leave office before 2026-05-01T14:00:00.000Z

> Before September 1, 2026 leads at 50%, runner-up 32% across 3 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 52 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/diazout-mdc
Updated: 2026-06-08T10:20:09.558Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-09-01

## Headline

- Leader: Before September 1, 2026 at 50%
- Runner-up: Before August 1, 2026 at 32%
- Outcomes: 3 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (3 contracts)
- 24h volume: $1K

## Bound contracts (3)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Before September 1, 2026 | 50¢ | −1pp | $22 | kalshi | /markets/will-miguel-daz-canel-leave-office-before-2026-09-kalshi-kxdiazout-mdc-26sep01 |
| Before August 1, 2026 | 32¢ | −2pp | $71 | kalshi | /markets/will-miguel-daz-canel-leave-office-before-2026-08-kalshi-kxdiazout-mdc-26aug01 |
| Before July 1, 2026 | 12¢ | +2pp | $938 | kalshi | /markets/will-miguel-daz-canel-leave-office-before-2026-07-kalshi-kxdiazout-mdc-26jul01 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Before September 1, 2026 | Before August 1, 2026 | Before July 1, 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-09 | 41 | — | — |
| 2026-05-12 | 45 | 23 | 10 |
| 2026-05-25 | 55 | 46 | 26 |
| 2026-06-01 | 55 | 36 | 18 |
| 2026-06-07 | 51 | 31 | 10 |
| 2026-06-08 | — | — | 12 |

_31 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-01 · Before August 1, 2026 −9pp 45→36¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-02 · Before July 1, 2026 −6pp 18→12¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-04 · Before July 1, 2026 +5pp 8→13¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-03 · Before September 1, 2026 −5pp 53→48¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-03 · Before July 1, 2026 −4pp 12→8¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This market estimates a 41% probability that Miguel Díaz-Canel, Cuba's president, will leave office before May 1, 2026—a date that has now passed. The contract appears to reflect historical uncertainty about political transitions in Cuba, where leadership changes have been rare but significant when they occur. The probability level suggests markets assign meaningful but minority odds to an unexpected departure, whether through health issues, political crisis, or institutional change. Key drivers would include Díaz-Canel's age and reported health status, domestic economic conditions, and any signs of internal party conflict. The resolution of this contract depends on verifiable confirmation of a leadership transition, which would require either official Cuban government statements or widely documented evidence of a change in executive authority.

### Key factors

- Díaz-Canel's current health status and age (born 1960), which affects succession risk from natural causes
- Cuba's economic conditions and social stability, which could trigger political instability or forced transitions
- Evidence of internal power struggles within Cuba's government or Communist Party leadership
- International diplomatic developments or sanctions changes that might alter regime stability
- Verifiable public documentation or official statements confirming any change in executive authority

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/diazout-mdc
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=diazout-mdc

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.