# Will legislation that terminates or otherwise limits global tariffs imposed by the President of the United States passed the House before Jul 1, 2026

> Brazil leads at 3%, runner-up 3% across 2 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 2 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/disapprovetariff
Updated: 2026-05-09T05:50:39.176Z
Category: politics · Topic: recession
Status: active
Closes: 2026-07-01

## Headline

- Leader: Brazil at 3%
- Runner-up: Mexico at 3%
- Outcomes: 2 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (2 contracts)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (2)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brazil | 3¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-legislation-that-terminates-or-otherwise-limi-kalshi-kxdisapprovetariff-jul26-br |
| Mexico | 3¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-legislation-that-terminates-or-otherwise-limi-kalshi-kxdisapprovetariff-jul26-mex |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Brazil | Mexico |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-11 | 1 | 6 |
| 2026-04-14 | 2 | — |
| 2026-04-27 | 2 | 3 |
| 2026-04-28 | 3 | — |
| 2026-05-02 | — | 4 |
| 2026-05-07 | — | 4 |

_13 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Analysis

This market asks whether the U.S. House will pass legislation terminating or limiting the President's tariffs before July 1, 2026. The 4% probability reflects the difficulty of passing tariff-limiting legislation in a Republican-controlled chamber during a Republican administration. Tariff policy has been a centerpiece of the current administration's trade agenda, making anti-tariff legislation unlikely to advance without significant bipartisan pressure or economic crisis. Key factors include whether tariffs trigger measurable economic harm (inflation, business losses, job cuts) that shifts congressional sentiment, and whether Democratic and Republican moderates can build a coalition large enough to overcome party leadership resistance. The main uncertainty resolver is whether tariff impacts become severe enough to force a House vote before the deadline, or whether the administration modifies policy voluntarily, making formal legislation unnecessary.

### Key factors

- The current administration has made tariff policy central to its agenda; House Republicans would need to override or resist their own party's president
- Economic data on inflation, unemployment, or business confidence could shift moderate Republicans' positions if tariffs cause measurable harm
- A coalition large enough to pass tariff-limiting legislation would require roughly 218 votes in a divided House, requiring Democratic support plus Republican defectors
- No major tariff-relief legislation has been formally introduced in the House as of early May 2026, suggesting limited momentum despite market concerns
- The July 1 deadline leaves only 2 months for bill introduction, committee consideration, and floor passage

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/disapprovetariff
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=disapprovetariff
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/recession

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