# Will Trump publicly criticize Kevin Warsh before Nov 1, 2026

> Before Jan 1, 2027 leads at 42%, runner-up 28% across 4 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 47 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/djtattackwarsh-26sep
Updated: 2026-09-21T15:20:51.591Z
Category: general · Topic: trump
Status: active
Closes: 2027-01-01

## Headline

- Leader: Before Jan 1, 2027 at 42%
- Runner-up: Before Dec 1, 2026 at 28%
- Outcomes: 4 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (4 contracts)
- 24h volume: $9K

## Bound contracts (4)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Before Jan 1, 2027 | 42¢ | −1pp | $4K | kalshi | /markets/will-trump-publicly-criticize-kevin-warsh-before-j-kalshi-kxdjtattackwarsh-27-jan |
| Before Dec 1, 2026 | 28¢ | −1pp | $2K | kalshi | /markets/will-trump-publicly-criticize-kevin-warsh-before-d-kalshi-kxdjtattackwarsh-26sep-26dec01 |
| Before Nov 1, 2026 | 18¢ | — | $2K | kalshi | /markets/will-trump-publicly-criticize-kevin-warsh-before-n-kalshi-kxdjtattackwarsh-26sep-26nov01 |
| Before Oct 1, 2026 | 3¢ | ±0 | $2K | kalshi | /markets/will-trump-publicly-criticize-kevin-warsh-before-o-kalshi-kxdjtattackwarsh-26sep-26oct01 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Before Jan 1, 2027 | Before Dec 1, 2026 | Before Nov 1, 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-23 | 22 | — | — |
| 2026-09-07 | 30 | — | — |
| 2026-09-12 | 38 | — | — |
| 2026-09-18 | 43 | 29 | 19 |
| 2026-09-19 | 42 | 28 | — |

_23 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-09-17 · Before Jan 1, 2027 +9pp 38→47¢ · kalshi
- 2026-09-18 · Before Jan 1, 2027 −4pp 47→43¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This probability reflects market expectation that Donald Trump will make a public criticism of Kevin Warsh before December 1, 2026. The 34% price suggests traders view it as unlikely but meaningful. The current assessment likely reflects Trump's public communication patterns, his relationship with Warsh, and Warsh's current role or visibility. Key drivers include Trump's propensity for public criticism of administration members and policy figures, and whether Warsh takes policy positions that conflict with Trump's stated priorities. The market assigns lower probability to criticism occurring before October 1 (9%) versus November 1 (21%), suggesting traders expect any criticism would occur later in the fall if it happens at all. Resolution will depend on Trump's actual public statements—speeches, social media posts, or media appearances—over the next 2.5 months.

### Key factors

- Trump's historical frequency of public criticism toward administration officials, advisors, and policy figures outside his immediate circle
- Warsh's current or anticipated policy positions and whether they diverge from Trump's publicly stated positions on inflation, interest rates, or fiscal policy
- Warsh's public visibility and proximity to Trump during the September-December 2026 period
- The definition of 'public criticism' and whether it requires direct name-calling or includes any negative comments about decisions or positions associated with Warsh
- Market pricing differences across timeframes (9% before Oct 1 vs. 21% before Nov 1 vs. 34% before Dec 1) indicating expectations about timing concentration

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/djtattackwarsh-26sep
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=djtattackwarsh-26sep
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/trump

## License

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