# Will the Democratic National Committee's cash on hand be above 12000000 as of June 30, 2026

> Above 12 million leads at 87%, runner-up 73% across 5 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 17 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/dnccash
Updated: 2026-06-26T00:20:49.940Z
Category: general · Topic: election-2026
Status: active
Closes: 2026-07-20

## Headline

- Leader: Above 12 million at 87%
- Runner-up: Above 14 million at 73%
- Outcomes: 5 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (5 contracts)
- 24h volume: $2K

## Bound contracts (5)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 12 million | 87¢ | −1pp | $251 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-democratic-national-committees-cash-on-ha-kalshi-kxdnccash-26jun30-a12000000 |
| Above 14 million | 73¢ | ±0 | $49 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-democratic-national-committees-cash-on-ha-kalshi-kxdnccash-26jun30-a14000000 |
| Above 16 million | 39¢ | — | $1K | kalshi | /markets/will-the-democratic-national-committees-cash-on-ha-kalshi-kxdnccash-26jun30-a16000000 |
| Above 18 million | 17¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-democratic-national-committees-cash-on-ha-kalshi-kxdnccash-26jun30-a18000000 |
| Above 20 million | 6¢ | −6pp | $1 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-democratic-national-committees-cash-on-ha-kalshi-kxdnccash-26jun30-a20000000 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Above 12 million | Above 14 million | Above 16 million |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-23 | 84 | 77 | 43 |
| 2026-06-24 | 88 | 73 | — |
| 2026-06-25 | 87 | 73 | — |

_3 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-24 · Above 20 million −6pp 13→7¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-24 · Above 12 million +4pp 84→88¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-24 · Above 14 million −4pp 77→73¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This probability reflects traders' assessment that the Democratic National Committee will hold more than $12 million in cash reserves by June 30, 2026. The 81% confidence suggests market participants expect the DNC to maintain a substantial war chest heading into the 2026 midterm campaign cycle. Key drivers include the pace of fundraising relative to spending on operations, campaign infrastructure, and ongoing political activities. The DNC's cash position fluctuates based on donation cycles, major donor events, and whether party resources are being deployed for special elections or candidate support. The June 30 deadline coincides with mid-year financial reporting requirements, providing concrete public data to resolve this question. The spread between the $12 million threshold (81%) and higher benchmarks—$14 million at 70% and $20 million at 25%—suggests traders view substantial reserves as likely but significant growth as less certain.

### Key factors

- DNC fundraising performance in Q1 and Q2 2026 relative to their spending commitments and operational budget
- Whether the party makes major expenditures for special elections, candidate recruitment, or midterm preparation before June 30
- Historical DNC cash-on-hand patterns during non-presidential election years and their typical reserve levels
- Donor sentiment and contribution velocity, which tend to correlate with political momentum and election cycle timing
- Official FEC filings due June 30 will provide the definitive cash-on-hand figure, leaving minimal ambiguity in resolution

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/dnccash
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=dnccash
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/election-2026

## License

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