# Will the U.S. Department of Energy announce issuing a solicitation to exchange or sell crude oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve before Oct 1, 2026

> Before Jan 1, 2028 leads at 61%, runner-up 41% across 3 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 43 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/doesprtender-26aug
Updated: 2026-08-27T12:20:50.172Z
Category: markets · Topic: oil
Status: active
Closes: 2028-01-01

## Headline

- Leader: Before Jan 1, 2028 at 61%
- Runner-up: Before Jan 1, 2027 at 41%
- Outcomes: 3 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (3 contracts)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (3)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Before Jan 1, 2028 | 61¢ | +36pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-us-department-of-energy-announce-issuing-kalshi-kxdoesprtender-26aug-28jan01 |
| Before Jan 1, 2027 | 41¢ | +15pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-us-department-of-energy-announce-issuing-kalshi-kxdoesprtender-26aug-27jan01 |
| Before Oct 1, 2026 | 11¢ | +4pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-us-department-of-energy-announce-issuing-kalshi-kxdoesprtender-26aug-26oct01 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Before Jan 1, 2028 | Before Jan 1, 2027 | Before Oct 1, 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-24 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| 2026-08-25 | 26 | 18 | 7 |
| 2026-08-26 | 62 | — | — |

_3 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-08-26 · Before Jan 1, 2028 +36pp 26→62¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-25 · Before Jan 1, 2028 +23pp 3→26¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-25 · Before Jan 1, 2027 +15pp 3→18¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-25 · Before Oct 1, 2026 +4pp 3→7¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This probability reflects expectations that the U.S. Department of Energy will announce a solicitation to buy, exchange, or sell crude oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve by October 1, 2026—roughly five weeks away. The 7% probability suggests traders view such an announcement as unlikely in this short timeframe. SPR transactions depend on energy market conditions, administration policy, and congressional authorization. Oil prices, geopolitical disruptions, and budget decisions would typically drive timing. The main catalyst is whether DOE issues any formal solicitation notice before the deadline; current market activity and energy prices will inform this decision. The progressively higher probabilities for longer timeframes (7% by Jan 2027, 10% by Jan 2028) indicate traders expect such announcements remain possible but not imminent within weeks.

### Key factors

- Current crude oil price levels and market volatility—lower prices or energy supply concerns increase likelihood of SPR actions
- No announced SPR solicitation or policy statement from DOE as of late August 2026, suggesting low near-term probability
- Historical SPR transaction frequency and typical notice periods between authorization and public solicitation announcements
- Congressional appropriations or budget authority requirements that may precondition any SPR activity
- Geopolitical events or energy market disruptions that could accelerate DOE decision-making on emergency reserves

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/doesprtender-26aug
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=doesprtender-26aug
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/oil

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