# Will DOGE trimmed mean be above $0.14 by 11:59 PM ET on Apr 30, 2026

> Above $0.11 leads at 9%, runner-up 6% across 5 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 26 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/dogemaxmon-doge
Updated: 2026-06-26T05:20:50.483Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-07-01

## Headline

- Leader: Above $0.11 at 9%
- Runner-up: Above $0.13 at 6%
- Outcomes: 5 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (5 contracts)
- 24h volume: $420

## Bound contracts (5)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above $0.11 | 9¢ | +7pp | $127 | kalshi | /markets/will-doge-trimmed-mean-be-above-011-by-1159-pm-et-kalshi-kxdogemaxmon-doge-26jun30-011 |
| Above $0.13 | 6¢ | −2pp | $99 | kalshi | /markets/will-doge-trimmed-mean-be-above-013-by-1159-pm-et-kalshi-kxdogemaxmon-doge-26jun30-013 |
| Above $0.12 | 6¢ | −1pp | $78 | kalshi | /markets/will-doge-trimmed-mean-be-above-012-by-1159-pm-et-kalshi-kxdogemaxmon-doge-26jun30-012 |
| Above $0.17 | 4¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-doge-trimmed-mean-be-above-017-by-1159-pm-et-kalshi-kxdogemaxmon-doge-26jun30-017 |
| Above $0.14 | 3¢ | ±0 | $115 | kalshi | /markets/will-doge-trimmed-mean-be-above-014-by-1159-pm-et-kalshi-kxdogemaxmon-doge-26jun30-014 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Above $0.11 | Above $0.13 | Above $0.12 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-01 | 20 | 14 | 24 |
| 2026-06-11 | — | 5 | 5 |
| 2026-06-12 | 4 | — | 4 |
| 2026-06-19 | 5 | 4 | 8 |
| 2026-06-25 | 9 | 6 | 6 |

_24 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-22 · Above $0.13 +25pp 2→27¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-24 · Above $0.13 −19pp 27→8¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-21 · Above $0.12 −14pp 17→3¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-20 · Above $0.12 +9pp 8→17¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-25 · Above $0.11 +7pp 2→9¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This market asks whether Dogecoin's trimmed mean price will exceed $0.14 by April 30, 2026. With markets pricing this at 29%, traders are assessing whether DOGE will maintain or exceed that level over the next four weeks. The probability reflects uncertainty about near-term cryptocurrency volatility, macroeconomic conditions, and DOGE-specific developments. Upward pressure would require sustained buying interest or positive catalysts; downward pressure could come from broader crypto weakness or profit-taking after any recent gains. The resolution date itself acts as the primary catalyst—no specific scheduled event appears to drive expectations, so the outcome depends on continuous market dynamics through late April rather than a discrete announcement or data release.

### Key factors

- DOGE's current price relative to $0.14 and recent 4-week price volatility compared to historical ranges
- Correlation with Bitcoin and Ethereum movements, since altcoins typically track major crypto assets
- Trading volume and order-book depth on major exchanges, indicating conviction behind current price levels
- Macroeconomic factors (Fed policy, risk sentiment) that typically influence speculative asset demand
- Absence of scheduled announcements or protocol changes that might create sudden directional pressure

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/dogemaxmon-doge
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=dogemaxmon-doge

## License

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