# Will DOGE trimmed mean be above $0.13 by 11:59 PM ET on Dec 31, 2026

> Above $0.11 leads at 52%, runner-up 43% across 5 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 1 h ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/dogemaxy-doge
Updated: 2026-08-24T13:20:49.901Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2027-01-01

## Headline

- Leader: Above $0.11 at 52%
- Runner-up: Above $0.12 at 43%
- Outcomes: 5 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (5 contracts)
- 24h volume: $37

## Bound contracts (5)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above $0.11 | 52¢ | +5pp | $37 | kalshi | /markets/will-doge-trimmed-mean-be-above-011-by-1159-pm-et-kalshi-kxdogemaxy-doge-26dec31-011 |
| Above $0.12 | 43¢ | +7pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-doge-trimmed-mean-be-above-012-by-1159-pm-et-kalshi-kxdogemaxy-doge-26dec31-012 |
| Above $0.14 | 30¢ | +10pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-doge-trimmed-mean-be-above-014-by-1159-pm-et-kalshi-kxdogemaxy-doge-26dec31-014 |
| Above $0.15 | 26¢ | +10pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-doge-trimmed-mean-be-above-015-by-1159-pm-et-kalshi-kxdogemaxy-doge-26dec31-015 |
| Above $0.13 | 4¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-doge-trimmed-mean-be-above-013-by-1159-pm-et-kalshi-kxdogemaxy-doge-26dec31-013 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Above $0.11 | Above $0.12 | Above $0.14 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-25 | 48 | 47 | — |
| 2026-07-27 | 48 | 40 | 31 |
| 2026-08-09 | 5 | 3 | 2 |
| 2026-08-10 | 5 | — | — |
| 2026-08-17 | 2 | — | — |
| 2026-08-19 | 4 | 3 | — |
| 2026-08-20 | 9 | 5 | 3 |
| 2026-08-24 | 52 | 43 | 31 |

_30 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-08-22 · Above $0.11 +28pp 21→49¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-22 · Above $0.12 +18pp 13→31¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-23 · Above $0.14 +13pp 8→21¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-23 · Above $0.15 +13pp 5→18¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-21 · Above $0.11 +12pp 9→21¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This market is pricing a 39% probability that Dogecoin's trimmed mean price will exceed $0.13 by year-end 2026. The contract sits between the more heavily traded $0.08 threshold (68% implied) and the $0.14 threshold (26% implied), reflecting uncertainty about DOGE's trajectory in the final five months of the year. Broader crypto market volatility, Bitcoin's performance, and retail sentiment around meme assets are primary drivers of these probabilities. The wide spacing between contract prices ($0.08 to $0.15) suggests meaningful disagreement about whether DOGE will consolidate below $0.12 or push toward higher levels. Resolution depends on actual price data on December 31, 2026, with no intermediate catalyst—only cumulative market conditions over the remaining 161 days will determine the outcome.

### Key factors

- DOGE currently trades substantially below the $0.13 threshold based on recent spot prices, requiring significant appreciation within five months
- The $0.08 contract commands 68% implied probability while $0.13 is at 39%, indicating markets expect modest gains but not sharp rallies
- Bitcoin correlation and altcoin season dynamics historically drive DOGE performance; a crypto downturn would pressure achievement of higher price targets
- The trimmed mean methodology filters extreme prices, making the outcome less vulnerable to flash crashes or manipulation on any single exchange
- 24-hour trading volume across these contracts ($82–$200) is moderate, suggesting these prices reflect genuine disagreement rather than thin liquidity artifacts

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/dogemaxy-doge
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=dogemaxy-doge

## License

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