# Will Wenyi Ding lead at the end of Round 1 in the Volvo China Open

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 34% across 18 contracts — refreshed 10 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/dpworldtourr1lead
Updated: 2026-05-03T16:35:50.778Z
Category: geopolitics · Topic: china
Status: active
Closes: 2026-05-12

## Headline

- Probability: 34% (liquidity-weighted across 18 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (18 contracts)
- 24h volume: $19K

## Bound contracts (18)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 3.6% | 64¢ | ±0 | $3K | kalshi | /markets/will-the-rate-of-cpi-inflation-be-above-36-for-the-kalshi-kxcpiyoy-26apr-t3.6 |
| Rory McIlroy | 8¢ | +1pp | $3K | kalshi | /markets/will-rory-mcilroy-lead-at-the-end-of-round-1-in-th-kalshi-kxpgar1lead-pgc26-rmci |
| Cameron Young | 4¢ | ±0 | $3K | kalshi | /markets/will-cameron-young-lead-at-the-end-of-round-1-in-t-kalshi-kxpgar1lead-pgc26-came |
| Scottie Scheffler | 9¢ | +1pp | $2K | kalshi | /markets/will-scottie-scheffler-lead-at-the-end-of-round-1-kalshi-kxpgar1lead-pgc26-ssch |
| Above 2.5% | 91¢ | +2pp | $2K | kalshi | /markets/will-the-rate-of-core-cpi-inflation-be-above-25-fo-kalshi-kxcpicoreyoy-26apr-t2.5 |
| Above 3.7% | 31¢ | −1pp | $1K | kalshi | /markets/will-the-rate-of-cpi-inflation-be-above-37-for-the-kalshi-kxcpiyoy-26apr-t3.7 |
| Above 4.0% | 3¢ | +1pp | $1K | kalshi | /markets/will-the-rate-of-cpi-inflation-be-above-40-for-the-kalshi-kxcpiyoy-26apr-t4.0 |
| Above 3.9% | 67¢ | +2pp | $879 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-rate-of-cpi-inflation-be-above-39-for-the-kalshi-kxcpiyoy-26jun-t3.9 |
| Above 3.8% | 7¢ | ±0 | $724 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-rate-of-cpi-inflation-be-above-38-for-the-kalshi-kxcpiyoy-26apr-t3.8 |
| Cameron Young | 25¢ | −19pp | $617 | kalshi | /markets/will-cameron-young-lead-at-the-end-of-round-3-in-t-kalshi-kxpgar3lead-pgc26-came |
| Collin Morikawa | 3¢ | −1pp | $543 | kalshi | /markets/will-collin-morikawa-lead-at-the-end-of-round-1-in-kalshi-kxpgar1lead-pgc26-cmor |
| Above 3.7% | 85¢ | +1pp | $409 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-rate-of-cpi-inflation-be-above-37-for-the-kalshi-kxcpiyoy-26jun-t3.7 |
| Kylian Mbappe | 61¢ | ±0 | $369 | kalshi | /markets/will-kylian-mbappe-lead-uefa-champions-league-in-g-kalshi-kxleaderuclgoals-26-kmba |
| At least 210000 | 24¢ | +5pp | $356 | kalshi | /markets/how-many-initial-jobless-claims-will-there-be-the-kalshi-kxjoblessclaims-26may07-210000 |
| Matt Fitzpatrick | 5¢ | +1pp | $349 | kalshi | /markets/will-matt-fitzpatrick-lead-at-the-end-of-round-1-i-kalshi-kxpgar1lead-pgc26-mfit |
| Harry Kane | 37¢ | −2pp | $210 | kalshi | /markets/will-harry-kane-lead-uefa-champions-league-in-goal-kalshi-kxleaderuclgoals-26-hkan |
| U.S. Gulf Coast weekly average spot price for the week ending May 1, 2026 be above 4.05ㅤ?: Above 4.05ㅤ | 8¢ | +12pp | $91 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-kerosene-type-jet-fuel-prices-us-gulf-coa-kalshi-kxjetfuel-26may06-t4.05 |
| Above 3.5% | 84¢ | ±0 | $61 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-rate-of-cpi-inflation-be-above-35-for-the-kalshi-kxcpiyoy-26apr-t3.5 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-08 | 30 |
| 2026-04-19 | 36 |
| 2026-04-26 | 24 |
| 2026-05-03 | 46 |

_26 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-04-30 · U.S. Gulf Coast weekly average spot price for the week ending May 1, 2026 be above 4.05ㅤ?: Above 4.05ㅤ −20pp 61→41¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-03 · Cameron Young −19pp 20→1¢ · kalshi
- 2026-04-28 · Above 3.9% +17pp 24→41¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-02 · Cameron Young +17pp 3→20¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-01 · At least 210000 +14pp 19→33¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This market prices the probability that Wenyi Ding holds the lead after the first round of the Volvo China Open golf tournament at 95%, indicating strong confidence in this outcome. The high probability reflects that multiple golfers compete simultaneously in Round 1, meaning any single player leading is relatively unlikely in absolute terms—yet one competitor will inevitably lead after 18 holes. The probability would move lower if pre-tournament odds shift dramatically or if live scoring during Round 1 shows unexpected performance from other contenders. The market will fully resolve when the tournament's first round concludes and official leaderboards are finalized, typically the same day or following day depending on tournament scheduling.

### Key factors

- Wenyi Ding's current world ranking and recent tournament performance relative to the field at the Volvo China Open
- The total number of competitors in the tournament field—larger fields distribute probability more evenly across contenders
- Whether Ding is favored by course conditions, tee times, or weather patterns during Round 1 play
- Real-time scoring data and live leaderboard position changes as Round 1 progresses
- Ding's historical Round 1 performance and scoring consistency compared to other featured competitors in the field

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/dpworldtourr1lead
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=dpworldtourr1lead
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/china

## License

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