# Will Carbon Arc Domino's Monthly Foot Traffic (US) for July 2026 be above 430 Million

> Above 410 Million leads at 93%, runner-up 91% across 7 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 9 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/dpzft
Updated: 2026-07-28T19:20:50.916Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-08-08

## Headline

- Leader: Above 410 Million at 93%
- Runner-up: Above 420 Million at 91%
- Outcomes: 7 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (7 contracts)
- 24h volume: $90

## Bound contracts (7)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 410 Million | 93¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-carbon-arc-dominos-monthly-foot-traffic-us-fo-kalshi-kxdpzft-26aug08-t410 |
| Above 420 Million | 91¢ | +2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-carbon-arc-dominos-monthly-foot-traffic-us-fo-kalshi-kxdpzft-26aug08-t420 |
| Above 430 Million | 67¢ | +2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-carbon-arc-dominos-monthly-foot-traffic-us-fo-kalshi-kxdpzft-26aug08-t430 |
| Above 440 Million | 15¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-carbon-arc-dominos-monthly-foot-traffic-us-fo-kalshi-kxdpzft-26aug08-t440 |
| Above 450 Million | 9¢ | −3pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-carbon-arc-dominos-monthly-foot-traffic-us-fo-kalshi-kxdpzft-26aug08-t450 |
| Above 460 Million | 6¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-carbon-arc-dominos-monthly-foot-traffic-us-fo-kalshi-kxdpzft-26aug08-t460 |
| Above 470 Million | 3¢ | +2pp | $90 | kalshi | /markets/will-carbon-arc-dominos-monthly-foot-traffic-us-fo-kalshi-kxdpzft-26aug08-t470 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Above 410 Million | Above 420 Million | Above 430 Million |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-15 | 87 | 83 | 73 |
| 2026-07-19 | 94 | 90 | 62 |
| 2026-07-21 | — | 91 | 64 |
| 2026-07-26 | 93 | 90 | 65 |
| 2026-07-27 | — | 92 | 67 |

_12 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-07-22 · Above 440 Million −5pp 19→14¢ · kalshi
- 2026-07-25 · Above 410 Million −4pp 96→92¢ · kalshi
- 2026-07-24 · Above 420 Million +4pp 89→93¢ · kalshi
- 2026-07-25 · Above 420 Million −4pp 93→89¢ · kalshi
- 2026-07-24 · Above 410 Million +3pp 93→96¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This market reflects traders' assessment that Carbon Arc Domino's US foot traffic will exceed 430 million visits in July 2026, with an 87% probability assigned to exceeding the lower 410 million threshold. The pricing ladder—ranging from 87¢ for above-410M down to 45¢ for above-450M—suggests moderate confidence in sustained traffic volumes but meaningful uncertainty about whether visits will reach the highest levels. Resolution depends on actual foot-traffic data for July 2026, likely reported in early August. Key drivers include summer seasonality patterns, competitive promotional activity from other pizza chains, and broader consumer spending trends. The gap between the 87% and 73% probabilities (410M vs. 430M thresholds) indicates traders view a 20-million-visit range as plausible but uncertain, suggesting traffic forecasts cluster around 420–440 million without strong consensus on the exact outcome.

### Key factors

- July 2026 historical foot-traffic data for Carbon Arc Domino's compared to prior-year July baseline and year-to-date trend
- Promotional calendar and competitive activity from other major pizza delivery/QSR chains during July 2026
- Summer consumer spending patterns and economic indicators (employment, discretionary income) as of mid-2026
- Reported foot-traffic data methodology and measurement accuracy from Carbon Arc's reporting source
- The 20-million-visit spread between the 410M and 450M thresholds represents the market's uncertainty range, with 410M viewed as highly probable but 430M+ as moderately likely

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/dpzft
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=dpzft

## License

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